What are the steps involved in statistical research? Statistical research: concept, stages, significance in statistical analysis

Statistical work, as a rule, is built in the form of a series of successive stages, or stages (Fig. 2.6.). However, this scheme is not an established pattern once and for all, and in the daily practice of healthcare institutions, where all of the above steps are carried out, it can be modified depending on the objectives and goals of the study. So, filling in accounting documents corresponds to the stage of statistical observation. Compilation of periodic reports - the stage of statistical summary and grouping of materials. The analysis of the activities of a medical institution consists in the preparation of text reports, explanatory notes and business reviews that give a scientific and medical interpretation and explanation of digital data.

Stages of statistical research

Any properly organized statistical work is built according to the same type of scheme, which is equivalent in its main stages and stages. Sanitary-statistical research consists, as already noted, of four successive stages, which, in turn, break up into a number of separate statistical operations.

First stage is a preparatory work, which includes the preparation of a well-thought-out, clear plan and research program. The result of the entire study as a whole largely depends on the thoroughness and scrupulousness of the preparatory work.

Second phase- this is a statistical observation or collection of materials, which consists in the registration of individual phenomena, single facts, their signs and elements. In medical institutions, this stage is carried out in the form of filling in certain accounting documents.

Third stage is a statistical (tabular) summary and grouping of the received materials, i.e. the first counting operation for the processing of "statistical raw materials". Thus, the summary consists in systematizing and summarizing individual records and summarizing in the form of statistical tables. A practical example of a summary can be reports from medical institutions.

Fourth stage- counting processing and analysis of materials. It consists in obtaining absolute numbers of derived quantities, their qualitative analysis and scientific and medical interpretation (comparison with other materials, results and conclusions, literary and graphic design, publication). The practical expression of the analysis is the preparation of an explanatory note, i.e. text part of the report, summary-analytical or market review.

The selection of three stages by some authors (combining the first two) or expanding to five stages (separation of computational processing and analysis) is not essential. You can accept a scheme with any number of stages, because what is important is not their number, but continuity, inseparable connection, strict sequence, interdependence and conditionality, occurring on the basis of a correct grouping. Mistakes made in one link can nullify all subsequent work.

Preparatory work and its content. The task of the preparatory work is to draw up a program and plan for the study. The organizational plan is outlined as a whole and for individual stages. The most important direction in this is the determination of the purpose of the study, the plan and program of observation and summary.

Individual elements of the first stage can be presented in a certain sequence:

Establishing the purpose and objectives of the study, i.e. the formulation of theoretical provisions and the definition of real needs that caused the need for this study, its limits and content.

So the wording “studying the incidence of the population” is unclear and very vague, therefore, it is necessary to clarify the types of diseases to be studied (general, professional, with temporary disability, etc.), the purposefulness of the work (finding out the impact on the dental health of the population of working conditions, living conditions , the quality of medical and preventive or sanitary and anti-epidemic measures, etc.).

The researcher must first familiarize himself in detail with the essence of the issue and with published literary or documentary sources.

Definition of the object of observation, i.e. the main totality of the studied persons or phenomena, its number and nature. The object of observation - who or what is to be studied - is, as a rule, certain contingents of persons (workers, employees, schoolchildren, conscripts, etc.). Sources of water supply, dormitories, trade enterprises and other institutions subject to sanitary supervision can also serve as an object, in special experimental work - animals and plants. Thus, the object of observation can be people, objects, phenomena, events, etc.

Determining the scope of observation. The question of the amount of material (patients, experiments, experimental animals) is associated with the degree of homogeneity of the studied population. The more homogeneous the population, the fewer observations are required. In addition to the estimated number of observations, the concept of the scope of work also includes the degree of detail of the study, i.e. the number of registered features.

One of the most important sections of the preparatory work is the establishment of the unit of observation, or the primary case of counting, i.e. those persons, objects or phenomena that would become an element of counting, a kind of "atom" of the studied population, which bears its signs.

The establishment of a unified unit of observation ensures the comparability of materials, the ability to "compare the comparable", because comparison is the soul of statistics, its basis. A clear definition of the unit of observation is necessary for the accuracy and uniformity of the collected materials, for the correctness of subsequent generalizations. The content of the unit of observation is determined by the goals and objectives of the study. For example, when studying different types of morbidity, each of them has its own unit of observation.

Even such seemingly simple questions included in the census form, such as literacy (how to take into account a person who can read but cannot write), marital status (registered or actual marriage), nationality (a child of parents of different nationalities), etc., require clarification. .P.

Clarifications are also needed when taking into account doctors (whether to include workers not in their specialty or pensioners), during the census of the housing stock (what is considered an apartment); when determining surgical intervention (whether to consider abortion, biopsy, skin grafting, etc. as an operation). For example, if you ask the question "How is your dental health?" several people, one will rate it as bad, another as good, a third as satisfactory, and so on. But these are all subjective assessments, and an objective study of the dental health of the same individuals may lead to the same assessments of dental health in all subjects or to other assessments that differ from subjective assessments.

The subject of observation requires serious attention, i.e. These are the organizers and participants of the work. It is necessary to foresee in advance the forces and qualifications of personnel filling out and developing documentation, controlling and responsible for collecting material. Moreover, the number of participants at different stages of work may vary. The volume and program of the study often depend on the preparedness and qualifications of the participants in the work.

The organizational or organizational-technical plan of observation also includes questions about the place and time of observation. The place of observation is the administrative-territorial boundaries: a village or several villages (point settlements with the presence of doctors), an administrative district, a city or its district, a territory, a region, a republic. In medical-geographical studies, devoted in particular to issues of regional pathology, certain areas are selected (for example, the study of the physical development of children in the Arctic, the spread of dentoalveolar anomalies among the inhabitants of Sakhalin, the spread of thyroid pathology among adolescents of the Magadan region). Study time, i.e. specific terms are determined both for the observation period and for the entire study as a whole (both development and analysis). Depending on the objectives of the study, its period is planned. For example, a study over the past 5 years or from January 1 of the next year, for a certain season (when studying the effectiveness of a summer health campaign or spa treatment). Sometimes the question of the term is closely related to the research method (anamnestic, follow-up, etc.). Along with the usual one-time "cross-sectional" studies over a short period of time, so-called "longitudinal" or cohort studies are used, i.e. long-term observations of the same population group (“cohort”).

You should also indicate the sources of obtaining materials. Most often they are primary accounting medical documents: “Statistical coupon” (account form No. 25-2 / y), “Card of a person who left the hospital” (account form No. 066 / y), “Emergency notification of an infectious disease, food, acute professional poisoning” (registration form No. 058/y) and others. Often these are specially designed documents. Sometimes the research is based on reporting documents. But since Because they contain ready-made and, moreover, limited groupings, they are of little use for in-depth analysis. For some works, such literary sources as bulletins of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other UN bodies, official reference publications, etc. are used.

In the monitoring plan, it is necessary to provide for various forms of practical implementation of the research results (writing a report and an explanatory note to it, a summary analytical review, report, publication, article, brochure, monograph, reference book). Summing up, we can say that the monitoring plan should answer the questions: what, where, when, by whom, and how will be studied. Speaking about the plan and the monitoring program, it must be emphasized that the list of data to be collected is determined by the monitoring program, and the procedure for implementing the program is established by the monitoring plan.

The research program includes several parts devoted to the choice of the goal, the tasks for achieving it, research methods, methods of observation, the definition of the unit of observation and the collection of relevant information.

In practice, the list of program questions and their individual features is expressed in the form of an accounting and statistical document, mainly of a card type (form, form, questionnaire) and less often of a list type (magazine, statement, account book). Generally accepted officially valid medical documents of the same type are approved by the relevant authorities (accounting - by the Ministry of Health, reporting - by the State Statistics Committee, etc.).

An extremely responsible stage of work, which is of exceptional importance, is the creation of special programs for in-depth research.

Simultaneously with the research program, a plan and program for the upcoming summary (drafts and layouts of worksheets) are drawn up. The preparation of the program is preceded by the theoretical development of the problem and practical tasks, the creation of working hypotheses, pathogenetic groups, as well as the development of a system of indicators for future analysis. The English statistician A. Bradford Hill (1958) points out: “The main and decisive step in conducting special surveys is the compilation of an accounting form. No matter how much attention you give to this task, it can never be too much.

When moving to mechanized accounting and development, you should leave room for markup ciphers, and provide for a clear wording of questions and their number. Answers should be specific and related to certain conditions (in particular, taking into account the place and time).

An example of a statistical research program in pediatrics

There are certain rules for compiling a statistical map.

First, it should not be overloaded. It is necessary to include only the necessary and necessary questions that will be needed in subsequent development.

Secondly, the questions should be clearly and precisely formulated and not cause different interpretations (and sometimes distrust or fear). Examples of vague wordings can be such as “the alleged place of infection” (either the entrance gate of the infection, or the area), “nutrition of the ulcer patient” (it is not clear - this refers to the diet or fatness, “reduced nutrition”).

Thirdly, the answers should be clear and categorical (yes, no, number, diagnosis). It's even better if they can be marked with a hint for underlining.

Fourthly, the construction of the program provides for the coordination and mutual control of issues (diagnosis, gender, age, profession and work experience, year of graduation, etc.).

A necessary addition to the statistical map is an instruction (sometimes printed on the map) that explains the meaning of terms, the procedure for filling out and maintaining documents using specific examples.

There are no trifles in statistics, and the concise nature of the questions emphasizes this especially. N.I. Pirogov pointed out the significance of the conciseness of the statistical program: "There is no need to go into details about each subject: one word entered in the column will sometimes say everything you need to know." N.I. Pirogov also wrote that statisticians should act according to a single definite plan.

Sometimes, to test the program and methodology for collecting materials, preliminary development is carried out on a limited scale.

A very important prerequisite for the success of the study is a collective discussion of the plan and program (and subsequently also the results) with interested and competent persons, as well as with the participants in the work.

Modern statistical research can be extensive, large-scale. In any case, it is advisable to estimate in advance the amount of work to be done and the costs required for this. Some of the latter may be covered in certain cases from traditional sources (for example, the salaries of medical workers), but some may require special allocations, allocation of additional human and material resources.

QUESTIONS FOR THE EXAM

Subject "Statistics"

Section 1. General statistics

The subject of statistical science and the tasks of statistics at the present stage.

Complete and reliable statistical information is the necessary basis on which the process of economic management is based. Making managerial decisions at all levels - from a national or regional level to the level of an individual corporation or private firm - is impossible without proper statistical support. It is the statistical data that make it possible to determine the volume of gross domestic product and national income, to identify the main trends in the development of economic sectors, to assess the level of inflation, to analyze the state of financial and commodity markets, to study the standard of living of the population and other socio-economic phenomena and processes.

Statistics is a science that studies the quantitative side of mass phenomena and processes in close connection with their qualitative side, the quantitative expression of the laws of social development in specific conditions of place and time.

The techniques and methods of collecting, processing and analyzing data used at all stages of the study are the subject of study of the general theory of statistics, which is the basic branch of statistical science. The methodology developed by her is used in macroeconomic statistics, sectoral statistics (industry, agriculture, trade and others), population statistics, social statistics and other statistical fields.

Statistical population, its types. Units of the population and classification of their features.

The statistical totality is the natural resources of peoples, populations and natural phenomena, taken together within certain boundaries of place and time, affect the economic life of society. It is a single whole consists of its individual units. Each of which can be described by a number of properties and features that they possess. Each of the features of the properties of units of the statistical population reflects a specific feature that characterizes this unit of the population.

A sign is a feature of a unit. aggregates. Unit selection aggregates, the list of features that characterize depend on the purpose and objectives of this statistical study.

Unit stat. aggregates form together a single whole in a number of properties and features that differ from each other. These differences are called feature variation. Variation is possible under the influence of external causes.

Classification of signs:

Qualitative (attribute) are determined by the presence or absence of any quality

Quantitative expressed in numbers

Discrete ones take an integer value - continuous ones take any real value.

The method of statistics and the main stages of statistical research.

Statistics has its own system of methods and methods of research aimed at the methods of commercial patterns, manifestation in the structure, dynamics (development) and the relationship of social phenomena.

The main method of statistical research. 3 stages:

1) stat. observation

2) summary and grouping of results

3) analysis of the received data

The method of mass observation (the law of large numbers) is carried out by the scientific and organizational collection of information, the study of socio-economic processes or phenomena (population census).

The grouping method distributes the entire mass into disposable groups and subgroups. The results are calculated for each group and subgroup with the results in the form of tables. Statistical indicators are processed and the results are analyzed to obtain reasonable conclusions about the state of the study of phenomena and the patterns of economic development. Conclusions are drawn up in text form and are accompanied by graphs and tables.

The Ministry of Statistics includes: regional, city department of statistics, regional department of statistics. Within the Min. stat. includes: analytical, information resource and registration standards and classifications of the organization stat. observations and balances, stat. Finance of the balance of payments, stat. prices, goods, markets, services.

To obtain statistical information, state and departmental statistics bodies, as well as commercial structures, conduct various kinds of statistical research. The process of statistical research includes three main stages: data collection, their summary and grouping, analysis and calculation of generalizing indicators.

The results and quality of all subsequent work largely depend on how the primary statistical material is collected, how it is processed and grouped. Insufficient study of the program-methodological and organizational aspects of statistical observation, the lack of logical and arithmetic control of the collected data, non-compliance with the principles of group formation can ultimately lead to absolutely erroneous conclusions.

No less complex, time-consuming and responsible is the final, analytical stage of the study. At this stage, average indicators and distribution indicators are calculated, the structure of the population is analyzed, the dynamics and relationships between the studied phenomena and processes are studied.

1. STAGES OF STATISTICAL RESEARCH

The process of studying socio-economic phenomena through a system of statistical methods and quantitative characteristics - a system of indicators, is called statistical research.

The main stages of statistical research are:

1) statistical observation;

2) summary of received data;

3) statistical analysis.

If necessary, a statistical study may contain an additional stage - a statistical forecast.

Statistical observation is a scientifically organized collection of data on the phenomena and processes of social life by registering their essential features according to a pre-developed program of observation. These observations represent primary statistical information about the observed objects, which is the basis for obtaining their general characteristics. Observation acts as one of the main methods of statistics and as one of the most important stages of statistical research.

Conducting a statistical study is impossible without a high-quality information base obtained in the course of statistical observation. Therefore, from the moment of changing the idea of statistics as a descriptive science, special rules for conducting observation and special requirements for its results - statistical data are being developed. That is, observation is one of the main methods of statistics.

Observation is the first stage of statistical research, the quality of which determines the achievement of the final objectives of the study.

1.1. Observation is carried out according to a specially prepared program.

The program includes a list of characteristics of the object of study, data on which must be obtained as a result of observation.

When preparing an observation, it is necessary to determine in advance:

1. An observation program in which:

a) the object of observation is defined, i.e. the set of units of the phenomenon that needs to be investigated. Moreover, it is necessary to distinguish the unit of observation from the reporting unit. Reporting unit - a unit that provides statistical data, may consist of several population units, or may coincide with a population unit. For example, in a population survey, the unit might be a household member and the reporting unit might be the household.

b) the boundaries of the object of observation are determined.

c) the characteristics of the object of observation are determined, information about which must be obtained as a result of observation.

2. Time of observation of an object - the time at which or for which information about the object under study is recorded.

3. Timing of the observation. That is, the time period for data collection and the end date of the observation are determined. The terms of observation affect the time of completion of the statistical study as a whole and the timeliness of its conclusions.

4. Means and resources needed for monitoring: the number of qualified specialists; material resources; means of processing the results of observation.

5. Requirements for statistical data. The main requirements are: a) reliability, i.e. information about the object of study should reflect its real state at the time of observation; b) comparability of data, i.e. information obtained as a result of observation should be comparable, which is ensured by a unified methodology for collecting and analyzing data, by units of measurement, etc.

1.2. There are several types of statistical observation.

1. By coverage of population units:

a) solid;

b) non-continuous (selective, monographic, according to the method of the main array)

2. By the time of registration of facts: a) current (continuous); b) discontinuous (periodic, one-time)

3. According to the method of collecting information: a) direct observation; b) documentary observation; c) survey (questionnaire, correspondent, etc.)

Summary - the process of bringing the received data into the system, their processing and calculation of intermediate and general results, the calculation of interrelated analytical values.

The next stage of the statistical study is the preparation of the information obtained during the observation for analysis. This stage is called summary.

The summary includes:

— systematization of information obtained during observations;

- their grouping;

- development of a system of indicators characterizing educated groups;

— creation of development tables for grouped data;

— calculation of derived values according to development tables.

In the literature on the theory of statistics, one often encounters the consideration of summaries and groupings as independent stages of research. However, it should be noted that the concept of a summary includes actions for grouping statistical data, so here the concept of “summary” is adopted as the name of the research stage.

Statistical analysis is a study of the characteristic features of the structure, connection of phenomena, trends, patterns of development of socio-economic phenomena, for which specific economic-statistical and mathematical-statistical methods are used. Statistical analysis is completed by the interpretation of the obtained results.

Statistical forecast - scientific identification of the state and probable ways of development of phenomena and processes, based on a system of established cause-and-effect relationships and patterns.

EXERCISE 1

As a result of a sample survey of the wages of 60 employees of an industrial enterprise, the following data were obtained (Table 1).

Build an interval series of distribution according to the resultant attribute, forming five groups with equal intervals.

Determine the main indicators of variation (dispersion, standard deviation, coefficient of variation), mean power value (mean value of the feature) and structural means. Depict graphically in the form of: a) histograms; b) cumulates; c) ogives. Make a conclusion.

SOLUTION

1. Let's determine the range of variation according to the performance indicator - according to the length of service according to the formula:

R \u003d Xmax - Xmin \u003d 36 - 5 \u003d 31

where Xmax is the maximum amount of assets

Xmin - the minimum amount of assets

2. Determine the value of the interval

i \u003d R / n \u003d 31/5 \u003d 6.2

taking into account the obtained value of the intervals, we group the banks and obtain

3. Let's build an auxiliary table

Feature group	Meaning of values in a group x i	Quantity feature frequency (frequency) fi	in % of the total ω	Accumulated frequency Si	Interval midpoint	* f i	ω
I 5 – 11,2	6,8,7,5,8,6,10,9,9,7, 6,6,9,10,7,9,10,10, 11,8,9,8, 7, 6, 9, 10		43,3	43,3		210,6	350,73		46,24	1202,24
II 11,2 – 17,4	16,15,13,12,14,14, 12,14,17,13,15,17, 14		21,7		14,3	185,9	310,31		0,36	4,68
III 17,4 – 23,6	18,21,20,20,21,18, 19,22,21,21,21,18, 19		21,7	86,7	20,5	266,5	444,85		31,36	407,68
IV 23,6 –29,8	28,29,25,28, 24				26,7	133,5	221,61	11,8	139,24	696,2
V 29,8 – 36	36,35,33,				32,9	98,7	164,5
TOTAL						895,2	1492		541,2	3282,8

4. The average value of the attribute in the studied population is determined by the weighted arithmetic formula:

of the year

5. Dispersion and standard deviation of a feature is determined by the formula

Definition of volatility

Thus, V>33.3%, therefore, the population is heterogeneous.

6. Definition of fashion

Mode is the value of the feature that occurs most frequently in the studied population. In the studied interval variational series, the mode is calculated by the formula:

Where

x M0
– the lower limit of the modal interval:

i M0 is the value of the modal interval;

f M0-1 f M0 f M0+1 are the frequencies (frequencies) of the modal, premodal, and postmodal intervals, respectively.

The modal interval is the interval having the highest frequency (frequency). In our problem, this is the first interval.

7. Calculate the median.

Median - a variant located in the middle of an ordered variation series, dividing it into two equal parts, so that half of the population units have attribute values less than the median, and half - more than the median.

In the interval series, the median is determined by the formula:

where is the beginning of the median interval;

- the value of the median interval

is the frequency of the median interval;

is the sum of accumulated frequencies in the pre-median interval.

The median interval is the interval in which the ordinal number of the median is located. To determine it, it is necessary to calculate the sum of the accumulated frequencies up to a number exceeding half of the totality.

According to Gr. 5 auxiliary table we find the interval, the amount of accumulated often exceeds 50%. This is the second interval - from 11.6 to 18.4, and it is the median.

Then

Consequently, half of the employees with work experience less than 13.25 years, and half - more than this value.

6. Draw a series in the form of a polygon, a histogram, a cumulative straight line, an ogive.

Graphical representation plays an important role in the study of variational series, as it allows in a simple and visual form to analyze statistical data.

There are several ways to graphically represent series (histogram, polygon, cumulate, ogive), the choice of which depends on the purpose of the study and on the type of variation series.

The distribution polygon is mainly used to display a discrete series, but you can also build a polygon for an interval series if you first bring it to the maternity one. The distribution polygon is a closed broken line in a rectangular coordinate system with coordinates (x i , q i), where x i is the value of the i-th feature, q i is the frequency or frequency of the i-ro feature.

A distribution histogram is used to display an interval series. To build a histogram on the horizontal axis, successively lay off segments equal to the intervals of the sign, and on these segments, as on the bases, rectangles are built, the heights of which are equal to the frequencies or particulars for a series with equal intervals, densities; for a series with unequal intervals.

Cumulate is a graphical representation of a variational series, when the accumulated frequencies or particulars are plotted on the vertical axis, and the values of the feature are plotted on the horizontal axis. The cumulate serves for graphical representation of both discrete and interval variational series.

Conclusion: Thus, the main indicators of the variation of the studied series were calculated: the average value of the feature - work experience is 14.9 years, the dispersion is calculated equal to 54.713, in turn, the standard deviation of the feature is 7.397. The mode has a value of 9.13, in the modal interval is the first interval of the studied series. The median of the series is 13.108, dividing the series into two equal parts, which indicates that in the organization under study, half of the employees have less than 13.108 years of work experience, and half have more.

TASK 2

We have the following initial data characterizing the dynamics for 1997-2001. (table 2).

Table 2 Initial data

Year	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
Production of granulated sugar, thousand tons	1620	1660	1700	1680	1700

Determine the main indicators of a series of dynamics. Present the calculation in the form of a table. Calculate the average annual values of indicators. In the form of a graphic image - a polygon, indicate the dynamics of the analyzed indicator. Make a conclusion.

SOLUTION

Given

Year	years
Year	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
	1620	1660	1700	1680	1700

1) The average level of dynamics is calculated by the formula

2) We calculate chain and basic growth rates as follows:

1. Absolute growth is determined by the formula:

Аib = yi – y0

Aic \u003d yi - yi-1

2. The growth rate is determined by the formula: (%)

Trb = (yi / y0) *100

Trc \u003d (yi / yi-1) * 100

3. The growth rate is determined by the formula: (%)

Tnrb \u003d Trb -100%:

Тnрц = Трц - 100%

4. Average absolute growth:

y n
is the final level of the dynamic series;

y 0
– the initial level of the dynamic series;

n c
is the number of chain absolute increments.

5. Average annual growth rate:

6. Average annual growth rate:

3) Absolute content of 1% increase:

A \u003d Xi-1 / 100

All calculated indicators are summarized in a table.

Indicators	years
Indicators	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
Number of surgeries per period	1620	1660	1700	1680	1700
2. Absolute growth

Aic
3. Growth rate
Trib		102,5	104,9	103,7	104,9
trits		102,5	102,4	98,8	101,2
4. Growth rate
Тпib
Tpits
5. Meaning of 1% increase		16,2	16,6	17,0	16,8

5) Average annual value

7. Draw graphically as a polygon.

Thus, the following is obtained. The largest absolute and relative increase in surgical operations for the period was in 1999 and amounted to 1700, the absolute increase compared to the base year was 80 operations, the growth rate compared to the base year 1997 was 104.9%, and the base growth rate was 4.9 %. The largest chain absolute gains were in 1998 and 1999 - 40 operations each. The highest chain growth rate was observed in 1998 - 102.5%, and the smallest chain growth rate in the number of transactions was in 2000 - 98.8%.

TASK 3

There is data on the sale of goods (see table 3)

Table 3 Initial data on the sale of goods

Product	Base year		Reporting year
Product	quantity	price	quantity	price

	1100		1000

		1350		1300

	1650		1700

Determine: a) individual indices ( i p , i q); b) common indices (I p , I q , I pq); c) an absolute change in trade due to: 1) the quantity of goods; 2) prices.

Make a conclusion based on the calculated indicators.

SOLUTION

Let's create an auxiliary table

View	basic		Reporting		Work		Indices
View	Quantity, q 0	Price, p 0	Qty, q 1	Price, p 1	q 0 * p 0	q 1 * p 1	i q \u003d q 1 / q 0	i p \u003d p 1 / p 0	q 1 * p 0
					44000	35000	0,875	0,909	38500
	1100		1000		41800	40000	0,909	1,053	38000
					7500	8400	1,200	0,933	9000
		1350		1300	40500	26000	0,667	0,963	27000
					45000	44000	1,100	0,889	49500
	1650		1700		26400	25500	1,030	0,938	27200
TOTAL					205200	178900			189200

Conclusion: As you can see, the total increase in turnover for the year amounted to (-26300) conventional units, including the impact of changes in the quantity of goods sold by - 16000 and due to changes in the price of goods - 10300 conventional units. The total increase in trade turnover amounted to 87.2%. It should be noted that according to the calculated indices of the quantity of goods by assortment, there is a slight increase in turnover for goods "P" by 120% and goods "C" by 110%, a slight increase in the sale of goods "T" - only 103%. The sales of goods "P" decreased quite significantly - only 66.7% of sales in the base year, sales of goods "H" - 87.5% and goods "O" - 90.9% of the corresponding indicator of the base year slightly higher. The individual price index shows that the price increased only for the product "O" - by 105.3%, at the same time for all other types of goods - "N", "P", "R", "S", "T" the individual price index indicates a negative trend (decrease), respectively - 90.9%; 93.3%;, 96.3%, 88.9; 93.8.

The overall index of the physical volume of sales indicates a slight decrease in the total volume of sales by 94.6%; the general price index indicates a general decrease in the price of goods sold by 92.2%, and the general trade turnover index indicates an overall decrease in trade turnover by 87.2%.

TASK 4

From the initial data of table No. 1 (select lines from 14 to 23), on two grounds - length of service and wages, conduct a correlation-regression analysis, determine the parameters of correlation and determination. Construct a graph of the correlation between two signs (resultant and factorial). Make a conclusion.

SOLUTION

Initial data

Production experience	Salary
	1800
	2500
	1750
	1580
	1750
	1560
	1210
	1860
	1355
	1480

Straight Line Dependency

The parameters of the equation are determined by the least squares method, by the system of normal equations

To solve the system, we use the method of determinants.

Parameters are calculated by formulas

The result of the first stage of statistical research - statistical observation - is information characterizing each unit of the statistical population. However, the ability to reflect the patterns and trends in the dynamics of the phenomena under study with the help of even the most complete characterization of individual facts is limited. Such data is obtained only as a result of a statistical summary. A summary is an ordering, systematization and generalization of statistical data obtained during statistical observation. Only proper processing of statistical material makes it possible to reveal the essence of socio-economic phenomena, the characteristic features and essential features of individual types, to discover patterns and trends in their development. A distinction is made between a simple and a group summary, or a summary in a narrow and broad sense. A simple summary is the calculation of the totals in groups and subgroups and the presentation of this material in tables. As a result of a simple summary of statistical data, it is possible to determine the number of enterprises, the total number of employees, the volume of production in monetary terms. These summaries are for the most part informative. They give a generalized characteristic of the population in the form of absolute values.

A group summary, or a summary in the broad sense, is a complex process for the multilateral processing of primary statistical data, i.e. data obtained as a result of observation. It includes the grouping of statistical data, the development of a system of indicators to characterize groups, the calculation of group and overall results, the calculation of generalizing indicators. The task of a statistical summary as the second stage of a statistical study is to obtain generalizing indicators for information, reference and analytical purposes. The summary of mass statistical data is carried out according to a previously developed program and plan. In the process of developing the program, the subject and predicate of the summary are determined. The subject is the object of study, divided into groups and subgroups. The predicate is indicators that characterize the subject of the summary. The summary program is determined by the objectives of the statistical study.

Statistical summary is carried out according to a predetermined plan. The summary plan addresses questions about how to work on summarizing information - manually or mechanically, about the sequence of individual summary operations. The deadlines for the completion of each stage and the summary as a whole, as well as the methods for presenting the results of the summary, are established. These can be distribution series, statistical tables and statistical graphs.

received materials.

summary indicators.

Each observation is carried out with a specific purpose. When conducting it, it is necessary to establish what is to be examined. The following questions need to be addressed:

Object of observation

Unit of observation

Qualification

sign

The observation program is drawn up in the form of forms (questionnaires, forms), in which primary data are entered. A necessary addition to the forms is an instruction that explains the meaning of the questions.

terms of observation;

preparatory work;

For example, the critical moment of the micro-census of 1994. was 0.00 am on the night of February 13-14. By establishing the critical moment of observation, one can determine the true state of affairs with photographic accuracy.

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Stages of statistical research. Collected during the first stage of statistical research - statistical observation - data on the value of any feature of the studied population

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Collected during the first stage of the statistical study - statistical observation - data on the value of any feature of the studied population should be processed in such a way that an accurate and detailed answer to all the questions posed by the purpose of the study is obtained. The task of the second stage of statistical research is statistical processing (summaries) - consists in ordering and generalizing the primary material, bringing it into groups and, on this basis, giving a generalized description of the totality. The quality of the initial statistical material predetermines the quality of the generalizing indicators obtained as a result of the statistical summary.

Distinguish summary simple and complex (statistical grouping).

Simple Summary is an operation to calculate the totals for a set of units of observation. Complex summary - this is a set of operations that includes grouping observation units, counting the totals for each group and for the entire population, and presenting the results of the summary and grouping in the form of statistical tables.

Statistical grouping is reduced to the division of the population into groups according to to the selected feature essential for the units of the population (grouping feature ). The choice of a grouping feature, i.e. sign , according to which the units of the studied population are united into groups, - one of the most significant and complex issues in the theory of grouping and statistical research . The results of the entire statistical study often depend on the correct choice of a grouping attribute.

Statistical observation. Stages of statistical research

Grouping makes it possible to obtain such results by which it is possible to identify the composition of the population, the characteristic features and properties of typical phenomena, to discover patterns and relationships.

The simplest and most commonly used way of summarizing statistical data is distribution ranks . The statistical series (law) of distribution is the numerical distribution of units of the population according to the trait under study. Let some SW be discrete, i.e. can only take fixed (on some scale) values X i . In this case, a series of probabilities P(X i) for all ( i=1, 2, …, n) admissible values of this quantity is called its distribution law.

Depending on the grouping feature used, statistical series can be attributive and variational (quantitative).

Attribute rows distributions reflect the qualitative state of the units of the population (gender of a person, marital status, industry affiliation of an enterprise, its form of ownership, etc.), and variational - have a numerical expression (production volume, family income, age of a person, academic score, etc.).

An example of an attribute series is the distribution of students in a group by gender.

Variational (quantitative) grouped series can be discrete or interval . A discrete variational distribution series is a series in which the numerical distribution of population units according to a discrete attribute is expressed as an integer finite value. An example is the distribution of workers by category, the distribution of city families by the number of children, and so on. An interval distribution series is a series in which the characteristic values are given as an interval. The construction of interval variation series is expedient, first of all, for random variables characterized by a continuous variation of a feature (i.e., when the value of a feature in population units can take on any values, even if within certain limits).

So, the probability distribution law of a discrete SW carries all the information about it. This law (or simply the distribution of a random variable) can be specified in three ways:

— in the form of a table of quantity values and their corresponding probabilities;

- in the form of a diagram or, as it is sometimes called, a distribution histogram;

- in the form of a formula, for example, for normal, binomial, etc. distribution.

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Stages of statistical research

Stages of statistical research.

Statistical study- this is a collection, summary and analysis of data (facts) on socio-economic, demographic and other phenomena and processes of public life in the state, scientifically organized according to a single program, with registration of their most significant features in accounting documentation.

Distinctive features (specifics) of statistical research are: purposefulness, organization, mass character, consistency (complexity), comparability, documentation, controllability, practicality.

Statistical research consists of three main stages:

1) collection of primary statistical information(statistical observation) - observation, collection of data on the values of the studied attribute of units of statistical cos-ty, kt is the foundation of future statistical analysis. If a mistake was made during the collection of primary statistical data or the material turned out to be of poor quality, this will affect the correctness and reliability of both theoretical and practical conclusions.

2) statistical summary and processing of primary information- Data is organized and grouped. The results of statistical grouping and summaries are presented in the form of statistical tables, which is the most rational, systematized, compact and visual form of presentation of mass data.

3) generalization and interpretation of statistical information- analysis of statistical information.

All these stages are interconnected, the absence of one of them leads to a break in the integrity of the statistical study.

Stages of stat research

1. Goal setting

2. Definition of the object of observation

3. Definition of units of observation

4. Drawing up a research program

5. Drawing up instructions for filling out the form

6. Summary and grouping of data (brief analysis)

Basic concepts and categories of statistical science.

1. Statistical population- a set of phenomena that have one or more common features and differ from each other in the values of other features. Such, for example, are the totality of households, the totality of families, the totality of enterprises, firms, associations, etc.

2. Sign - this property, a characteristic feature of the phenomenon, subject to statistical study

3. Statistical indicator- this is a generalizing quantitative characteristic of the social economy of phenomena and processes in their qualitative certainty in the conditions of a particular place and time. Statistical indicators can be divided into two main types: accounting and estimated indicators (sizes, volumes, levels of the phenomenon under study) and analytical indicators (relative and average values, variation indicators, etc.).

4. Unit of owls- this is each individual, subject to statistical study.

5. Variation- this is the variability of the magnitude of the attribute in individual units of co-phenomena.

6. Regularity- called the repetition and order of change in phenomena.

The main stages of statistical observation.

St-some observation is a scientifically based collection of data on the social economy phenomenon of social life.

CH stages:

1. Preparation for statistical observation - involves the use of the method of mass observations, which is nothing more than the collection of primary statistical information. (solution of scientific, methodological and organizational and technical issues).

2. Summary and grouping of primary stats- the collected information is summarized and distributed in a certain way using the method of stat groupings. including work, begins with the distribution of census forms, questionnaires, forms, statistical reporting forms and ends with their submission after filling in to the bodies conducting the observation.

3. Analysis of statistical information- using the method of generalizing indicators, the analysis of statistical information is carried out.

4. Development of proposals for improving the CH- analyzes the reasons that led to the incorrect filling of statistical forms and develops proposals for improving the observation.

Obtaining information during CT SN requires a considerable amount of financial labor and time. (opinion polls)

Grouping statistics.

grouping- this is the division of owls into groups according to essential features.

Reasons for grouping: the originality of the object of the statistical study.

The grouping method solves the following problem: allocation of socio-economy types and phenomena; study of the structure of the phenomenon and structural changes occurring in it; revealing the relationship and dependence between phenomena.

These tasks are solved with the help of typological, structural and analytical groupings.

Typological group– identification of types of social-economic phenomena (group of industrial enterprises by form of ownership)

Structural group– study of structure and structural shifts. With the help of such groups, the following can be studied: the composition of us-I by gender, age, place of residence, etc.

Analytical group- identifying the relationship between features.

Stages of building SG:

1.selection of a grouping feature

2.determination of the required number of groups, into kt it is necessary to divide the studied owl

3. set the boundaries of the gr-ki intervals

4. setting for each group of indicators or their system, which should characterize the selected groups.

grouping systems.

Grouping system- this is a series of interrelated statistical groupings according to the most significant features, comprehensively reflecting the most important aspects of the phenomena under study.

Typological group- this is the division of the studied qualitatively heterogeneous society into classes, social-economy types (group of industrial enterprises by form of ownership)

Structural group- characterizes the composition of a homogeneous cos-ty according to certain characteristics. With the help of such groups, the following can be studied: the composition of us-I by gender, age, place of residence, etc.

Analytical group- are used in the study of the relationship between the signs, one of the kt is factorial (influences the change in performance), the other is productive (features that change under the influence of factors).

Construction and types of distribution series.

Stat number of distribution- this is an ordered distribution of units of owls into groups according to a certain varying trait.

Distinguish: attributive and variational happy distributions.

Attributive- these are r.r., built on qualitative grounds. R.r. taken in the form of tables. They characterize the composition of the owls according to the existing features, taken over several periods, these data make it possible to study the change in the structure.

variational are r.r. built on a quantitative basis. Any variation series consists of 2 elements: variants and frequencies.

Options individual values of the attribute are considered, which it takes in the variation series, i.e.

specific value of the variable attribute.

Frequencies- this is the number of individual options or each group of the variation series, i.e. these are numbers showing how often certain variants occur in the r.r.

Variation series:

1.discrete- characterizes the distribution of units of owls on a discrete basis (the distribution of families according to the number of rooms in individual apartments).

2.interval– the feature is presented as an interval; it is expedient first of all at a continuous variation of a sign.

The most convenient r.r. analyze with the help of their graphical representation, which makes it possible to judge the form of distribution. A visual representation of the nature of the change in the frequencies of the variational series is given by a polygon and a histogram, there is an ogive and a cumulate.

Statistical tables.

ST is a rational and common form of presenting statistical data.

The table is the most rational, visual and compact form of presentation of statistical material.

The main techniques that determine the technique for the formation of ST trace:

1. T should be compact and contain only those initial data that directly reflect the studied socio-economy phenomenon in the article.

2. The heading of the table and the names of the columns and lines should be clear and concise.

3.inf-tion is located in the columns (columns) of the table, ends with a summary line.

5. it is useful to number columns and lines, etc.

According to the logical content, STs are a “stat sentence”, the main elements being the subject and the predicate.

Subject the name of the object, characterized by numbers. this is m.b. one or more owls, otd units of owls.

Predicate ST are indicators that characterize the object of study, i.e. subject of the table. The predicate is the top headings and the state of the content column from left to right.

9. The concept of absolute value in statistics .

Stat pok-whether is a qualitatively defined variable that quantitatively characterizes the object of study or its properties.

A.v.- this is a generalizing indicator that characterizes the size, scale or volume of a particular phenomenon in specific conditions of place and time.

Ways of expression: natural units (t., pcs., quantity); labor dimension (slave. Wr, labour); value expression

How to get: registration of facts, summary and grouping, calculation according to defined methodology (GDP, ratings, etc.)

Types of AB: 1.individual AB - characterize individual elements of general phenomena 2. Total AB - har-t indicators for co-objects.

Absolute change (/_\) is the difference between 2 AB.

Stages and methods of statistical research

Statistical research consists of three main stages:

Statistical observation is the first stage. In the course of it, primary statistical information and data are collected, which will become the basis for future statistical analysis. Statistical observation methods are represented by censuses, statistical reporting, questioning, and selective observation.

Statistical summary is the second stage. In the course of it, the processing of primary information takes place; specific single information is summarized, forming a set in order to identify typical features and patterns inherent in the phenomenon under study as a whole. The main method of statistical summary is grouping, when the studied phenomena are divided into the most important types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential features. The results of the statistical grouping and summaries are presented in the form of tables and graphs.

Generalization and analysis of statistical information is the third stage. Statistical analysis is the final stage of statistical research.

The main stages of the analysis are the following:

1. establishing the facts and their assessment;

2. establishing the characteristic features and causes of the phenomenon;

3. comparison of the phenomenon with the basic phenomena - normative, planned and others;

4. formulation of hypotheses, conclusions and assumptions;

5. statistical verification of the hypotheses put forward with the help of special generalizing statistical indicators.

General indicators- absolute, relative, average values and index systems - are used at this stage. The general features of the formation of generalizing indicators are established by measuring their deviations and bringing them to an average indicator. The study of deviations - "variations" - together with the use of average and relative values is of great practical and scientific importance. Indicators of deviations of "variations" characterize the degree of homogeneity of the statistical population according to the desired attribute. Indicators of "variations" determine the degree and boundaries of variation. Of considerable interest is the relationship of signs of "variations".

All these three stages are inextricably linked by an organic unity. Thus, statistical observation is meaningless without further analysis, and analysis is impossible without information obtained at the stage of primary data processing.

The processing of empirical research data is usually divided into several stages:

1) Primary data processing:

- Compilation of tables;

— Transformation of the form of information;

- Data checking.

2) Statistical data analysis:

— Analysis of primary statistics;

— Assessment of the reliability of differences;

— Data normalization;

— Correlation analysis;

- Factor analysis.

In most cases, it is advisable to start data processing with the compilation of pivot tables.

Pivot data table- this is a kind of "accumulator" of all the data obtained as a result of the study, ideally it should contain the data of all subjects according to all research methods. Pivot tables are usually compiled in Microsoft Office Excel, or Word, Access.

The basis for the pivot table of the source data is the following form. Each line contains the values of all indicators of one subject. Each column (field) contains the values of one indicator for all subjects. Thus, in each cell (cell) of the table, only one value of one indicator of one subject is recorded. The topmost line contains the subject's number in order, full name (or some other identifier), measured indicators, scale ratings, etc. This line makes it easier to navigate the table. In each subsequent line, the name of the subject and the values of all parameters measured from him are recorded; of course, for all subjects in the same order of indicators.

The subjects can be listed in alphabetical order, but it is better to use this principle at the lowest level of division. First, it is better to divide the subjects according to their belonging to any subgroups that will be compared with each other. Within these subgroups, it is useful to sort the subjects by gender, age, or another parameter that is important to you.

Transformation of the form of information.

It is advisable to enter all the signs of interest to you in the table in the form of a decimal number, that is, pre-calculate minutes into decimal fractions of an hour, seconds into decimal fractions of a minute, the number of months into a decimal fraction of a year, etc. This is necessary because the data format for most computer programs in use today imposes its own limitations. Also, try not to enter various text characters (periods, commas, dashes, etc.) into the table without special need.

All information that can be encoded by numbers is better converted into numerical form. This will give more opportunities for different types of data processing. The exception is the first line, which contains the names (more often short names - abbreviations) of the measured indicators. In the form of numbers in the table, you can enter information about those parameters of the sample that can supposedly be significant factors, but you have in qualitative terms.

Methods and main stages of statistical research

The simplest operations can be: numerical coding (men - 1, women - 2; trained - 1, not passed - 2, etc.) and the conversion of qualitative indicators into ranks.

Data checking.

After creating a table on paper or computer, it is necessary to check the quality of the received data. To do this, it is often enough to carefully examine the data array. You should start checking by identifying errors (typos), which consist in the fact that the order of the number is written incorrectly. For example, 100 is written instead of 10, 9.4 is written instead of 94, etc. If you look closely at the columns, this is easy to detect, since parameters that vary greatly are relatively rare. Most often, the values of one parameter have the same order or nearest orders. When collecting data on a computer, it is important to comply with the requirements for the data format in the statistical program used. First of all, this applies to the sign, which must separate the integer part from the fractional part in a decimal number (dot or comma).

The use of methods of mathematical statistics in the processing of primary empirical data is necessary to increase the reliability of the conclusions of a scientific study. At the same time, it is not recommended to limit the use of indicators such as arithmetic averages and percentages. They most often do not provide sufficient grounds for reasonable conclusions from empirical data.

The choice of the method of statistical analysis of the obtained empirical data is a very important and responsible part of the study. And it's better to do it before the data is received. When planning a study, it is necessary to think in advance which empirical indicators will be recorded, by what methods they will be processed, and what conclusions can be drawn with different processing results.

When choosing a statistical criterion it is necessary, first of all, to identify the type of variables (features) and the scale of measurement that was used when measuring indicators and other variables - for example, age, family composition, level of education. Variables can be any indicators that can be compared with each other (that is, measured). It should be borne in mind that nominative and ordinal scales can be widely used in studies: verbal and non-verbal behavioral responses, gender, level of education - all this can be considered as variables. The main thing is to have clear and precise criteria for assigning them to one type or another, depending on the hypotheses and tasks set.

When choosing a statistical criterion, one should also focus on the type of data distribution that was obtained in the study. Parametric tests are used when the distribution of the received data is considered to be normal. A normal distribution is more likely (but not necessarily) to be obtained with samples of more than 100 subjects (it may work with a smaller number, or it may not work with a larger number). When using parametric criteria, it is necessary to check the normality of the distribution.

For nonparametric criteria, the type of data distribution does not matter. With small sample sizes of subjects, it is advisable to choose nonparametric criteria that give greater confidence in the conclusions, regardless of whether the study obtained a normal distribution of data. In some cases, statistically valid conclusions can be drawn even with samples of 5-10 subjects.

Many studies look for differences in measured indicators among subjects with certain characteristics. When processing the relevant data, criteria can be used to identify differences in the level of the studied trait or in its distribution. To determine the significance of differences in the manifestation of a trait in studies, indicators such as the paired Wilcoxon test, the Mann-Whitney U-test, the x-square (x2) test, Fisher's exact test, and the binomial test are often used.

In many studies, the search for the relationship of the studied indicators in the same subjects is carried out. Correlation coefficients can be used to process the relevant data. The relationship of values with each other and their dependence is often characterized by Pearson's linear correlation coefficient and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

The data structure (and, accordingly, the structure of the studied reality), as well as their relationship, is revealed by factor analysis.

In many studies, it is of interest to analyze the variability of a trait under the influence of any controlled factors, or, in other words, to assess the influence of various factors on the studied trait. For mathematical data processing in such problems, the Mann-Whitney U-test, the Kruskal-Wallis test, the Wilcoxon T-test, the ? 2 Friedman. However, to study the influence, and even more so the mutual influence of several factors on the parameter under study, analysis of variance may be more useful. The researcher proceeds from the assumption that some variables can be considered as causes, and others as consequences. Variables of the first kind are considered factors, while variables of the second kind are considered to be effective features. This is the difference between analysis of variance and correlation analysis, in which it is assumed that changes in one attribute are simply associated with certain changes in another.

In many studies, the significance of changes (shift) of any parameters and manifestations over a certain period of time, under certain conditions (for example, under conditions of corrective action) is revealed. Formative experiments in practical psychology solve precisely this problem. To process the relevant data, coefficients can be used to assess the reliability of the shift in the values of the trait under study. For this, sign criteria, the Wilcoxon T-test, are often used.

It is important to pay attention to the limitations that each criterion has. If one criterion is not suitable for the analysis of the available data, it is always possible to find some other one, perhaps by changing the type of presentation of the data itself. Before doing statistical analysis of empirical data, it is useful to check whether there are critical values corresponding to the amount and type of your data. Otherwise, you may be disappointed when your calculations turn out to be in vain due to the absence of critical values in the table with the sample size that you had.

After getting acquainted with the procedure for calculating the criterion, you can carry out "manual" data processing or use the statistical program of a personal computer.

For computer processing, the most popular programs are SPSS and Statistica.

The use of statistical programs in computer processing speeds up the processing of the material by several orders of magnitude and provides the researcher with such methods of analysis that cannot be implemented in manual processing. However, these advantages can be fully utilized if the researcher has the necessary level of training in this area. Usually, the more powerful a computer program (the more powerful it is), the more time it takes to master. Thus, spending time studying it with rare access to a powerful statistical apparatus is not entirely effective. Very often, the use of such programs to solve even simple tasks also requires a certain amount of skills.

In order to avoid unnecessary difficulties and time costs, it is much more effective to turn to professionals. They will qualitatively and professionally carry out all the necessary mathematical and statistical analysis of your research data: analysis of primary statistics, assessment of the reliability of differences, data normalization, correlation and factor analysis, etc.

After carrying out the necessary statistical analysis of the data, it is necessary to correlate the results obtained with the initially posed hypothesis, with the theoretical justifications of the authors who have studied this topic and previous researchers. Formulate conclusions and interpret the results.

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Main stages of statistical research

Consider the most important method of statistics - statistical observation.

Using various methods and techniques of statistical methodology

requires the availability of comprehensive and reliable information about the studied

object. The study of mass social phenomena includes the stages of collecting

statistical information and its primary processing, information and grouping

observation results in certain aggregates, generalization and analysis

received materials.

At the first stage of statistical research, primary

statistical data, or raw statistical information that

is the foundation of the future statistical building. For the building to be

solid, solid and high-quality should be its basis. If when collecting

primary statistical data, an error was made or the material turned out to be

poor quality, it will affect the correctness and reliability of both

theoretical as well as practical findings. Therefore, statistical

observation from the initial to the final stage - obtaining the final

materials - should be carefully thought out and clearly organized.

Statistical observation provides the source material for generalization, the beginning

which serves as a summary. If during statistical observation about each of its

unit receive information that characterizes it from many sides, then the data

summaries characterize the entire statistical population and its individual parts.

At this stage, the population is divided according to the signs of difference and combined according to

signs of similarity, total indicators are calculated for groups and in

in general. Using the grouping method, the studied phenomena are divided into the most important

types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential features. By using

groupings are limited qualitatively homogeneous in a significant respect

totality, which is a prerequisite for the definition and application

summary indicators.

At the final stage of the analysis with the help of generalizing indicators

relative and average values are calculated, a summary assessment is given

variations of signs, the dynamics of phenomena is characterized, indices are applied,

balance constructions, indicators are calculated that characterize the tightness

connections in the change of signs. For the most rational and clear

presentation of digital material, it is presented in the form of tables and graphs.

3. Statistical observation: concept, basic forms.

This is a scientific and organizational work to collect data. Forms: stat. 1) reporting, cat. based on documentary accounting. since 1998, 4 unified forms of federal state supervision have been introduced: FP-1 (project issue), FP-2 (investment), FP-3 (financial state of organizations), FP-4 (number of -t workers, labor), 2) specially organized observation (census), 3) a register is a s-ma pok-lei, which characterizes each unit of observation: registers of us- niya, pr-ty, construction sites and contractors. org-tions, retail and wholesale trade. Types of observation: 1) continuous, non-continuous (selective, qualified based on the main array method, monograph). Observation is current, period., One-time. Observation methods: direct, documentary, survey (forwarding agent, questionnaire, private, correspondence). Statistical observations are carried out according to the plan, which includes: program-methodological issues (goals, tasks), organizational issues (time, place). As a result of the observations, errors occur, the cat reduces the accuracy of the observations, therefore, data control is carried out (logical and counting). As a result of checking the authentic data, the following observation errors are revealed: random. errors (registration errors), intentional errors, unintentional (system. and non-system.), errors of representativeness (representativeness).

Program-methodological issues of statistical observation.

Program and methodological issues of statistical observation

Each observation is carried out with a specific purpose.

When conducting it, it is necessary to establish what is to be examined. The following questions need to be addressed:

Object of observation - a set of objects, phenomena, from which information should be collected. When defining an object, its main distinguishing features (features) are indicated. Any object of mass observations consists of their individual units, so it is necessary to decide what is the element of the totality that will serve as the unit of observation.

Unit of observation - this is an integral element of the object, which is the carrier of signs subject to registration and the basis of the account.

Qualification are certain quantitative restrictions for the object of observation.

sign - this is a property that characterizes certain features and characteristics inherent in the units of the studied population.

Organizational issues of statistical observation.

The observation program is drawn up in the form of forms (questionnaires, forms), in which primary data are entered.

A necessary addition to the forms is an instruction that explains the meaning of the questions.

The organizational issues of the program include:

terms of observation;

critical moment of observation;

preparatory work;

The period of observation to which the recorded information is referred. It is called the objective observation time. This might be a certain period of time (day, decade, month) or a certain moment. The moment to which the recorded information relates is called the critical moment of observation.

For example, the critical moment of the micro-census of 1994. was 0.00 h.

on the night of February 13-14. By establishing the critical moment of observation, one can determine the true state of affairs with photographic accuracy.

Preparatory work provides for the provision of observation with documents, as well as the compilation of a list of reporting units, forms, instructions.

Documents m. will be filled in during the observation or based on its results.

An important place in the system of preparatory work is the selection and training of personnel, as well as the briefing of those who will participate in the observation.

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Stages of statistical research.

Stage 1: Statistical observation.

Stage 2: Reduction and grouping of the results of observation into certain populations.

Stage 3: Generalization and analysis of the received materials. Identification of interrelations and scales of phenomena, determination of patterns of their development, development of predictive estimates. It is important to have comprehensive and reliable information about the object under study.

At the first stage of statistical research, primary statistical data, or initial statistical information, is formed, which is the foundation of the future statistical "building".

STAGES OF STATISTICAL RESEARCH

In order for the “building” to be durable, solid and of high quality, its foundation must be. If a mistake was made in the collection of primary statistical data or the material turned out to be of poor quality, this will affect the correctness and reliability of both theoretical and practical conclusions. Therefore, statistical observation from the initial to the final stage must be carefully thought out and clearly organized.

Statistical observation provides the source material for generalization, the beginning of which is summary. If, during statistical observation, information is obtained about each of its units that characterizes it from many sides, then these reports characterize the entire statistical aggregate and its individual parts. At this stage, the population is divided according to the signs of difference and combined according to the signs of similarity, the total indicators are calculated for the groups and as a whole. With the help of the grouping method, the studied phenomena are divided into the most important types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential features. With the help of groupings, qualitatively homogeneous populations are limited, which is a prerequisite for the definition and application of generalizing indicators.

At the final stage of the analysis, with the help of generalizing indicators, relative and average values are calculated, an assessment of the variation of signs is given, the dynamics of phenomena is characterized, indices and balance constructions are applied, indicators are calculated that characterize the closeness of relationships in changing signs. For the purpose of the most rational and visual presentation of digital material, it is presented in the form of tables and graphs.

The cognitive value of statistics thing is:

1) statistics provides a digital and meaningful coverage of the phenomena and processes under study, serves as the most reliable way to assess reality; 2) statistics gives probative force to economic conclusions, allows you to check various "walking" statements, individual theoretical positions; 3) statistics has the ability to reveal the relationship between phenomena, to show their form and strength.

1. STATISTICAL OBSERVATION

1.1. Basic concepts

Statistical observation — this is the first stage of statistical research, which is a scientifically organized accounting of facts characterizing the phenomena and processes of social life, and the collection of data obtained on the basis of this accounting, scientifically organized according to a single program.

However, not every collection of information is a statistical observation. One can talk about statistical observation only when statistical regularities are studied, i.e. those that manifest themselves in a mass process, in a large number of units of some set. Therefore, statistical observation should be planned, massive and systematic.

Plannedness statistical observation lies in the fact that it is prepared and carried out according to a developed plan, which includes questions of methodology, organization, collection of information, quality control of the collected material, its reliability, and presentation of the final results.

Mass the nature of statistical observation implies that it covers a large number of cases of manifestation of this process, sufficient to obtain truthful data characterizing not only individual units, but the entire population as a whole.

Systematic statistical observation is determined by the fact that it must be carried out either systematically, or continuously, or regularly.

The following requirements are imposed on statistical observation:

1) completeness of statistical data (completeness of coverage of units of the studied population, aspects of a particular phenomenon, as well as completeness of coverage over time);

2) reliability and accuracy of data;

3) their uniformity and comparability.

Any statistical research must begin with the formulation of its goals and objectives. After that, the object and unit of observation are determined, a program is developed, and the type and method of observation are selected.

Object of observation- a set of socio-economic phenomena and processes that are subject to research, or the exact boundaries within which statistical information will be recorded . For example, during a population census, it is necessary to establish what kind of population is subject to registration - cash, that is, actually located in a given area at the time of the census, or permanent, that is, permanently living in a given area. When surveying industry, it is necessary to establish which enterprises will be classified as industrial. In some cases, one or another qualification is used to limit the object of observation. Qualification- a restrictive feature that all units of the studied population must satisfy. So, for example, during the census of production equipment, it is necessary to determine what is attributed to production equipment, and what to hand tools, which equipment is subject to the census - only operating or also under repair, in stock, reserve.

Unit of observation is called an integral part of the object of observation, which serves as the basis for counting and has features that are subject to registration during observation.

So, for example, in a population census, the unit of observation is each individual person. If the task is also to determine the number and composition of households, then each household will be the unit of observation along with the person.

Observation program- this is a list of issues on which information is collected, or a list of signs and indicators to be registered . The observation program is drawn up in the form of a form (questionnaire, form), in which primary information is entered. A necessary addition to the form is an instruction (or indications on the forms themselves), explaining the meaning of the question. The composition and content of the questions of the observation program depend on the objectives of the study and on the characteristics of the social phenomenon being studied.