What stages does a statistical study include? Statistical research: concept, stages, meaning in statistical analysis

Statistical work, as a rule, is built in the form of a number of successive stages, or stages (Fig. 2.6.). However, this scheme is not a once and for all established template, and in the daily practice of healthcare institutions, where all of the listed stages are carried out, it can be modified depending on the tasks and goals of the study. Thus, filling out accounting documents corresponds to the stage of statistical observation. Drawing up periodic reports - the stage of statistical summary and grouping of materials. Analysis of the activities of a medical institution consists of compiling text reports, explanatory notes and market reviews that provide a scientific and medical interpretation and explanation of digital data.

Stages of statistical research

Any properly organized statistical work is built according to the same type of scheme, equivalent in its main stages and stages. A sanitary-statistical study consists, as already noted, of four successive stages, which, in turn, break down into a number of separate statistical operations.

First stage represents preparatory work, which includes drawing up a pre-thought-out, clear plan and research program. The result of the entire study as a whole largely depends on the thoroughness and thoroughness of the preparatory work.

Second phase- this is a statistical observation or collection of materials, which consists in recording individual phenomena, individual facts, their characteristics and elements. In medical institutions, this stage is carried out in the form of filling out certain accounting documents.

Third stage is a statistical (tabular) summary and grouping of the received materials, i.e. the first counting operation for processing “statistical raw materials”. Thus, a summary consists of systematizing and summarizing individual records and summing up the results in the form of statistical tables. A practical example of a summary would be reports from medical institutions.

Fourth stage- counting processing and analysis of materials. It consists in obtaining absolute numbers of derived quantities, their qualitative analysis and scientific and medical interpretation (comparison with other materials, results and conclusions, literary and graphic design, publication). The practical expression of analysis is the preparation of an explanatory note, i.e. text part of the report, summary analytical or market overview.

The identification by some authors of three stages (combining the first two) or expansion to five stages (separation of counting processing and analysis) is not significant. You can accept a scheme with any number of stages, because What is important is not their number, but continuity, inextricable connection, strict sequence, interdependence and conditionality, occurring on the basis of correct grouping. Mistakes made in one link can negate all subsequent work.

Preparatory work and its content. The task of the preparatory work is to draw up a program and research plan. The organizational plan is outlined as a whole and in individual stages. The most important direction in this case is to determine the purpose of the study, the plan and program of observation and summary.

The individual elements of the first stage can be presented in a certain sequence:

Establishing the purpose and objectives of the study, i.e. formulation of theoretical principles and determination of the real needs that necessitated this research, its limits and content.

Thus, the formulation “study of population morbidity” is unclear and very vague, therefore it is necessary to clarify the types of diseases to be studied (general, occupational, with temporary disability, etc.), the purpose of the work (clarification of the impact of working conditions, living conditions on the dental health of the population , quality of treatment and preventive or sanitary and anti-epidemic measures, etc.).

The researcher must first familiarize himself in detail with the essence of the issue and with published literary or documentary sources.

Definition of the object of observation, i.e. the main population of persons or phenomena being studied, its size and nature. The object of observation - who or what is subject to research - is, as a rule, certain groups of people (workers, employees, schoolchildren, conscripts, etc.). The objects can also be water supply sources, dormitories, commercial enterprises and other institutions subject to sanitary supervision; in special experimental work - animals and plants. Thus, the object of observation can be people, objects, phenomena, events, etc.

Determining the scope of observation. The question of the amount of material (patients, experiments, experimental animals) is related to the degree of homogeneity of the population being studied. The more homogeneous the population, the fewer observations will be required. In addition to the expected number of observations, the concept of scope of work also includes the degree of detail of the study, i.e. number of registered features.

One of the most important sections of the preparatory work is the establishment of the unit of observation, or the primary case of counting, i.e. those persons, objects or phenomena that would become an element of counting, a kind of “atom” of the population being studied, which bears its characteristics.

The establishment of a unified unit of observation ensures the comparability of materials, the ability to “compare comparable things,” because comparison is the soul of statistics, its basis. A clear definition of the unit of observation is necessary for the accuracy and homogeneity of the collected materials and for the correctness of subsequent generalizations. The content of the observation unit is determined by the goals and objectives of the study. For example, when studying different types of morbidity, each of them has its own unit of observation.

Even seemingly simple questions included in the census form require clarification, such as literacy (how to count a person who can read but cannot write), marital status (registered or actual marriage), nationality (child of parents of different nationalities), etc. .P.

Clarifications are also needed when recording doctors (whether to include those working outside their specialty or pensioners), when censusing the housing stock (what is considered an apartment); when determining surgical intervention (whether abortion, biopsy, skin graft, etc. are considered an operation). For example, if you ask the question “How is your dental health?” several people, one will evaluate it as bad, another as good, a third as satisfactory, etc. But all these are subjective assessments, and an objective study of the dental health of the same individuals can lead to the same assessments of dental health in all subjects or to other assessments that differ from the subjective ones.

The subject of observation requires serious attention, i.e. these are the organizers and participants of the work. It is necessary to provide in advance the strength and qualifications of the personnel filling out and developing documentation, monitoring and being responsible for collecting material. Moreover, the number of participants at different stages of work may change. The scope and program of the research often depend on the preparedness and qualifications of the participants.

The organizational or organizational and technical plan for observation also includes questions about the place and time of observation. The place of observation is the administrative-territorial boundaries: a village or several villages (stationary settlements with the presence of doctors), an administrative district, a city or its district, an edge, a region, a republic. In medical-geographical studies, devoted in particular to issues of regional pathology, certain areas are selected (for example, studying the physical development of children in the Arctic, the spread of dental anomalies among residents of Sakhalin, the spread of thyroid pathology among adolescents in the Magadan region). Research time, i.e. specific terms are determined both for the observation period and for the entire study as a whole (both development and analysis). Depending on the objectives of the study, its period is planned. For example, a study over the past 5 years or from January 1 of the next year, for a certain season (when studying the effectiveness of a summer health campaign or spa treatment). Sometimes the question of timing is closely related to the research method (anamnestic, follow-up, etc.). Along with the usual one-time “cross-sectional” studies over a short period of time, so-called “longitudinal” or cohort studies are used, i.e. long-term observations of the same population group (“cohort”).

The sources of materials should also be indicated. Most often they are primary medical records: “Statistical coupon” (registration form No. 25-2/u), “Card of a person leaving the hospital” (registration form No. 066/u), “Emergency notification of an infectious disease, food, acute occupational poisoning" (registration form No. 058/u) and others. Often these are specially designed documents. Sometimes the research is based on reporting documents. But because Since they contain ready-made and, moreover, limited groupings, they are of little use for in-depth analysis. For some works, literary sources such as bulletins of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other UN bodies, official reference publications, etc. are used.

In terms of observation, it is necessary to provide for various forms of practical implementation of the research results (drawing up a report and an explanatory note to it, a summary analytical review, a report, a publication, an article, a brochure, a monograph, a reference book). To summarize, an observation plan must answer the questions: what, where, when, by whom, and how will be studied. Speaking about the observation plan and program, it must be emphasized that the list of data to be collected is determined by the observation program, and the order of implementation of the program is established by the observation plan.

The research program includes several parts devoted to the choice of goal, tasks to achieve it, research methods, methods of observation, determination of the unit of observation and collection of relevant information.

In practice, the list of program issues and their individual characteristics is expressed in the form of an accounting and statistical document, mainly of the card type (form, form, questionnaire) and less often of the list type (magazine, statement, account book). Generally accepted officially valid medical documents of the same type are approved by the relevant authorities (registration - by the Ministry of Health, reporting - by the State Committee of Statistics, etc.).

An extremely important stage of work, which is of exceptional importance, is the creation of special programs for in-depth research.

Simultaneously with the research program, a plan and program for the upcoming summary (projects and layouts of worksheet) are drawn up. The preparation of the program is preceded by the theoretical development of the problem and practical tasks, the creation of working hypotheses, pathogenetic groupings, as well as the development of a system of indicators for future analysis. The English statistician A. Bradford Hill (1958) points out: “The main and decisive step in conducting special surveys is the preparation of an accounting form. No matter how much attention you give to this task, it can never be too much.”

When moving to mechanized accounting and development, space should be left for markup codes, and a clear formulation of questions and their number should be provided. Answers must be specific and relevant to specific conditions (particularly location and time).

Example of a statistical research program in pediatrics

There are certain rules for drawing up a statistical map.

Firstly, it should not be overloaded. It is necessary to include only the necessary and necessary questions that will be needed in subsequent development.

Secondly, questions must be clearly and precisely formulated and not cause different interpretations (and sometimes mistrust or fear). Examples of unclear formulations include “presumed site of infection” (either the entrance gate of infection, or the area), “nutrition of an ulcer patient” (it is unclear whether this means diet or fatness, “low nutrition”).

Thirdly, the answers must be clear and categorical (yes, no, number, diagnosis). It's even better if they can be indicated with a hint for underlining.

Fourthly, the construction of the program involves coordination and mutual control of issues (diagnosis, gender, age, profession and work experience, year of graduation, etc.).

A necessary addition to the statistical map is instructions (sometimes printed on the map) explaining the meaning of terms, the procedure for filling out and maintaining documents using specific examples.

There are no trifles in statistics, and the condensed nature of the questions especially emphasizes this. N.I. Pirogov pointed out the importance of the brevity of the statistical program: “There is no need to go into detail about each subject: one word entered in the column will sometimes tell everything you need to know.” N.I. Pirogov also wrote that statisticians must act according to a single definite plan.

Sometimes a trial run on a limited scale is initially conducted to test the program and collection methodology.

A very important prerequisite for the success of the research is a collective discussion of the plan and program (and subsequently also the results) with interested and competent persons, as well as with the participants in the work.

Modern statistical studies can be extensive and large-scale. In any case, it is advisable to estimate in advance the amount of work to be done and the costs required for this. Some of the latter can be covered in certain cases from traditional sources (for example, the salaries of medical workers), but some may require special allocations and the allocation of additional human and material resources.

QUESTIONS FOR THE EXAM

In the discipline "Statistics"

Section 1. General statistics

The subject of statistical science and the tasks of statistics at the present stage.

Complete and reliable statistical information is the necessary basis on which the process of economic management is based. Making management decisions at all levels - from national or regional to the level of an individual corporation or private firm - is impossible without proper statistical support. It is statistical data that makes it possible to determine the volume of gross domestic product and national income, identify the main trends in the development of economic sectors, estimate the level of inflation, analyze the state of financial and commodity markets, study the standard of living of the population and other socio-economic phenomena and processes.

Statistics is a science that studies the quantitative side of mass phenomena and processes in inextricable connection with their qualitative side, the quantitative expression of the laws of social development in specific conditions of place and time.

The techniques and methods of collecting, processing and analyzing data used at all stages of the study are the subject of study of the general theory of statistics, which is a basic branch of statistical science. The methodology she developed is used in macroeconomic statistics, sectoral statistics (industry, agriculture, trade and others), population statistics, social statistics and other statistical fields.

Statistical population, its types. Units of the population and classification of their characteristics.

A statistical aggregate is the natural resources of peoples, populations and natural phenomena, taken together within certain boundaries of place and time, influencing the economic life of society. It is a single whole consisting of its individual units. Each of which can be described by a number of properties and features that they possess. Each of the features of the properties of units of a statistical population reflects a specific feature characterizing a given unit of the population.

A sign is a feature of a unit. totality. Unit selection aggregate, the list of characteristics that characterize depends on the purpose and objectives of this statistical study.

Unit stat. aggregates form together a single whole according to a number of properties and features that differ from each other. These differences are called trait variation. Variation is possible under the influence of external causes.

Classification of signs:

Qualitative (attributed) are determined by the presence or absence of any quality

Quantitative are expressed in numbers

Discrete ones take an integer value - continuous ones take any real value.

Method of statistics and main stages of statistical research.

Statistics has its own system of techniques and research methods aimed at the methods of commercial patterns, manifestation in the structure, dynamics (development) and interrelationships of social phenomena.

The main technique of statistical research. 3 stages:

1) stat. observation

2) summary and grouping of results

3) analysis of the obtained data

The method of mass observation (law of large numbers) is carried out by scientific and organizational collection of information, study of socio-economic processes or phenomena (population census).

The grouping method distributes the entire mass into disposable groups and subgroups. The totals for each group and subgroup are calculated and the results are presented in the form of tables. Processing of statistical indicators and analysis of results is carried out to obtain substantiated conclusions about the state of studying phenomena and patterns of economic development. Conclusions are presented in text form and accompanied by graphs and tables.

The Ministry of Statistics includes: regional, city statistics department, district statistics department. The composition of the Min. stat. includes: analytical, information resource and registration standards and classifications of the organization of statistics. observations and balances, stat. finance balance of payments, stat. prices, goods, markets, services.

To obtain statistical information, state and departmental statistics bodies, as well as commercial structures, conduct various types of statistical research. The process of statistical research includes three main stages: data collection, their summary and grouping, analysis and calculation of general indicators.

The results and quality of all subsequent work largely depend on how the primary statistical material is collected, how it is processed and grouped. Insufficient elaboration of programmatic, methodological and organizational aspects of statistical observation, lack of logical and arithmetic control of the collected data, non-compliance with the principles of group formation can ultimately lead to completely erroneous conclusions.

The final, analytical stage of the study is no less complex, time-consuming and responsible. At this stage, average indicators and distribution indicators are calculated, the structure of the population is analyzed, and the dynamics and relationships between the phenomena and processes being studied are studied.

1. STAGES OF STATISTICAL RESEARCH

The process of studying socio-economic phenomena through a system of statistical methods and quantitative characteristics - a system of indicators - is called statistical research.

The main stages of conducting a statistical study are:

1) statistical observation;

2) summary of the data obtained;

3) statistical analysis.

If necessary, a statistical study may contain an additional stage - a statistical forecast.

Statistical observation is a scientifically organized collection of data about the phenomena and processes of social life through registration according to a pre-developed program for observing their essential features. Observation data represents primary statistical information about the observed objects, which is the basis for obtaining their general characteristics. Observation acts as one of the main methods of statistics and as one of the most important stages of statistical research.

Conducting a statistical study is impossible without a high-quality information base obtained during statistical observation. Therefore, since the change in ideas about statistics as a descriptive science, special rules for conducting observations and special requirements for its results - statistical data - have been developed. That is, observation is one of the main methods of statistics.

Observation is the first stage of statistical research, the quality of which determines the achievement of the final objectives of the study.

1.1. Observation is carried out according to a specially prepared program.

The program includes a list of characteristics of the research object, data about which must be obtained as a result of observation.

When preparing an observation, it is necessary to determine in advance:

1. An observation program in which:

a) the object of observation is determined, i.e. that set of units of a phenomenon that needs to be investigated. Moreover, it is necessary to distinguish the observation unit from the reporting unit. A reporting unit is a unit providing statistical data; it may consist of several population units, or may coincide with a population unit. For example, in a population survey, the unit might be the household member and the reporting unit might be the household.

b) the boundaries of the observation object are determined.

c) the characteristics of the object of observation are identified, information about which must be obtained as a result of observation.

2. Time of observation of an object - the time as of which or for which information about the object being studied is recorded.

3. Timing of observation. That is, the period of time for data collection and the date of completion of observation are determined. The observation period affects the completion time of the overall statistical study and the timeliness of its conclusions.

4. Funds and resources required for monitoring: number of qualified specialists; material resources; means for processing observation results.

5. Requirements for statistical data. The main requirements are: a) reliability, i.e. information about the object of research should reflect its real state at the time of observation; b) comparability of data, i.e. information obtained as a result of observation must be comparable, which is ensured by a unified methodology for collecting and analyzing data, by units of measurement, etc.

1.2. There are several types of statistical observation.

1. By coverage of population units:

a) solid;

b) non-continuous (selective, monographic, based on the bulk method)

2. According to the time of registration of facts: a) current (continuous); b) discontinuous (periodic, one-time)

3. By the method of collecting information: a) direct observation; b) documentary observation; c) survey (questionnaire, correspondent, etc.)

Summary is the process of bringing the received data into the system, processing it and calculating intermediate and general results, calculating interrelated quantities of an analytical nature.

The next stage of statistical research is the preparation of information obtained during observation for analysis. This stage is called summary.

Summary includes:

— systematization of information obtained during observations;

— their grouping;

— development of a system of indicators characterizing educated groups;

— creation of development tables for grouped data;

— calculation of derived quantities using development tables.

In the literature on the theory of statistics, one often encounters consideration of summary and grouping as independent stages of research. However, it should be noted that the concept of summary includes actions to group statistical data, so here the concept of “summary” is adopted as the name of the research stage.

Statistical analysis is a study of the characteristic features of the structure, relationships of phenomena, trends, patterns of development of socio-economic phenomena, for which specific economic-statistical and mathematical-statistical methods are used. Statistical analysis concludes with the interpretation of the results obtained.

Statistical forecast is a scientific identification of the state and probable paths of development of phenomena and processes, based on a system of established cause-and-effect relationships and patterns.

EXERCISE 1

As a result of a sample survey of wages of 60 employees of an industrial enterprise, the following data were obtained (Table 1).

Construct an interval distribution series based on the effective attribute, forming five groups with equal intervals.

Determine the main indicators of variation (variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation), the average power value (the average value of the characteristic) and structural averages. Represent it graphically in the form of: a) a histogram; b) cumulates; c) ogives. Draw a conclusion.

SOLUTION

1. Let us determine the scope of variation according to the effective attribute - according to production experience using the formula:

R = Хmax – Хmin = 36 – 5 = 31

where Xmax is the maximum size of assets

Хmin – minimum asset size

2. Determine the size of the interval

i = R/n = 31/5 = 6.2

Taking into account the obtained intervals, we group the banks and obtain

3. Let's build an auxiliary table

Recognition group	Meaning of values in a group x i	Quantity of characteristic frequency (frequency) f i	in % of total ω	Cumulative frequency S i	Middle of the interval	*fi	ω
I 5 – 11,2	6,8,7,5,8,6,10,9,9,7, 6,6,9,10,7,9,10,10, 11,8,9,8, 7, 6, 9, 10		43,3	43,3		210,6	350,73		46,24	1202,24
II 11,2 – 17,4	16,15,13,12,14,14, 12,14,17,13,15,17, 14		21,7		14,3	185,9	310,31		0,36	4,68
III 17,4 – 23,6	18,21,20,20,21,18, 19,22,21,21,21,18, 19		21,7	86,7	20,5	266,5	444,85		31,36	407,68
IV 23,6 –29,8	28,29,25,28, 24				26,7	133,5	221,61	11,8	139,24	696,2
V 29,8 – 36	36,35,33,				32,9	98,7	164,5
TOTAL						895,2	1492		541,2	3282,8

4. The average value of a characteristic in the population under study is determined by the arithmetic weighted formula:

of the year

5. The variance and standard deviation of a characteristic are determined by the formula

Determination of variability

Thus, V>33.3%, therefore, the population is heterogeneous.

6. Definition of fashion

Mode is the value of a characteristic that occurs most frequently in the population being studied. In the interval variation series under study, the mode is calculated using the formula:

Where

x M0
– lower limit of the modal interval:

i M0– the value of the modal interval;

f M0-1 f M0 f M0+1– frequencies (frequencies) of modal, pre-modal and post-modal intervals, respectively.

A modal interval is the interval that has the greatest frequency (frequency). In our problem, this is the first interval.

7. Calculate the median.

Median is an option located in the middle of an ordered variation series, dividing it into two equal parts, such that half of the population units have attribute values less than the median, and half more than the median.

In an interval series, the median is determined by the formula:

where is the beginning of the median interval;

– value of the median interval

– frequency of the median interval;

– the sum of accumulated frequencies in the pre-median interval.

The median interval is the interval in which the serial number of the median is located. To determine it, it is necessary to calculate the sum of the accumulated frequencies to a number exceeding half of the totality.

According to gr. 5 of the auxiliary table we find the interval in which the amount of accumulated amounts often exceeds 50%. This is the second interval - from 11.6 to 18.4, and it is the median.

Then

Consequently, half of the workers with work experience are less than 13.25 years, and half have more than this value.

6. Let us depict the series in the form of a polygon, a histogram, a cumulative line, or an ogive.

Graphic representation plays an important role in the study of variation series, as it allows one to analyze statistical data in a simple and visual form.

There are several ways to graphically display series (histogram, polygon, cumulate, ogive), the choice of which depends on the purpose of the study and on the type of variation series.

A distribution polygon is mainly used to depict a discrete series, but you can also construct a polygon for an interval series if you first convert it to a discrete series. The distribution polygon is a closed broken line in a rectangular coordinate system with coordinates (x i, q i), where x i is the value of the i-th feature, q i is the frequency or frequency of the i-ro feature.

A distribution histogram is used to display an interval series. To construct a histogram, segments equal to the intervals of the characteristic are laid out sequentially on the horizontal axis, and on these segments, as on bases, rectangles are constructed, the heights of which are equal to the frequencies or particulars for a series with equal intervals, densities; for a series with unequal intervals.

Cumulates are a graphical representation of a variation series, when accumulated frequencies or particulars are plotted on the vertical axis, and characteristic values are plotted on the horizontal axis. The cumulate is used for graphical representation of both discrete and interval variation series.

Conclusion: Thus, the main indicators of variation of the series under study were calculated: the average value of the attribute - production experience is 14.9 years, the dispersion was calculated to be 54.713, in turn, the standard deviation of the attribute is 7.397. The mode has a value of 9.13, and the modal interval is the first interval of the series being studied. The median of the series, equal to 13.108, divides the series into two equal parts, indicating that in the organization under study, half of the employees have less than 13.108 years of work experience, and half have more.

TASK 2

The following initial data are available that characterize the dynamics for 1997 – 2001. (table 2).

Table 2 Initial data

Year	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
Production of granulated sugar, thousand tons	1620	1660	1700	1680	1700

Determine the main indicators of the dynamics series. Present the calculation in the form of a table. Calculate the average annual values of the indicators. In the form of a graphic image - a polygon, indicate the dynamics of the analyzed indicator. Draw a conclusion.

SOLUTION

Given

Year	Years
Year	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
	1620	1660	1700	1680	1700

1) The average level of dynamics is calculated using the formula

2) Chain and base growth rates are calculated as follows:

1. Absolute growth is determined by the formula:

Аib = yi – y0

Aic = yi – yi-1

2. The growth rate is determined by the formula: (%)

Trb = (yi / y0) *100

Trc = (yi / yi-1)*100

3. The growth rate is determined by the formula: (%)

Тnрb = Трb –100%:

Tnrts = Trts – 100%

4. Average absolute increase:

y n
– final level of the dynamic series;

y 0
– initial level of the dynamic series;

n c
– number of chain absolute increases.

5. Average annual growth rate:

6. Average annual growth rate:

3) Absolute content of 1% increase:

A = Xi-1/100

We summarize all calculated indicators in a table.

Indicators	Years
Indicators	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
Number of surgical operations during the period	1620	1660	1700	1680	1700
2. Absolute increase

Aic
3. Growth rate
Trib		102,5	104,9	103,7	104,9
Trits		102,5	102,4	98,8	101,2
4. Growth rate
Тпib
Tpitz
5. Value of 1% increase		16,2	16,6	17,0	16,8

5) Average annual value

7. Let's depict it graphically in the form of a polygon.

Thus, the following is obtained. The largest absolute and relative increase in surgical operations for the period was in 1999 and amounted to 1700, the absolute increase compared to the base year was 80 operations, the growth rate compared to the base year 1997 was 104.9%, and the base growth rate was 4.9 %. The largest chain absolute increases were in 1998 and 1999 – 40 operations each. The highest chain growth rate was observed in 1998 - 102.5%, and the lowest chain growth rate in the number of transactions was in 2000 - 98.8%.

TASK 3

There are data on sales of goods (see table 3)

Table 3 Initial data on sales of goods

Product	Base year		Reporting year
Product	quantity	price	quantity	price

	1100		1000

		1350		1300

	1650		1700

Determine: a) individual indices ( i p , i q); b) general indices (I p, I q, I pq); c) absolute change in trade turnover due to: 1) the number of goods; 2) prices.

Draw a conclusion based on the calculated indicators.

SOLUTION

Let's create an auxiliary table

View	Basic		Reporting		Work		Indexes
View	Quantity, q 0	Price, p 0	Quantity, q 1	Price, p 1	q 0 * p 0	q 1 * p 1	i q =q 1 /q 0	i p =p 1 /p 0	q 1 * p 0
					44000	35000	0,875	0,909	38500
	1100		1000		41800	40000	0,909	1,053	38000
					7500	8400	1,200	0,933	9000
		1350		1300	40500	26000	0,667	0,963	27000
					45000	44000	1,100	0,889	49500
	1650		1700		26400	25500	1,030	0,938	27200
TOTAL					205200	178900			189200

Conclusion: As we can see, the total increase in trade turnover for the year was (-26,300) conventional units, including the impact of a change in the quantity of goods sold by - 16,000 and due to changes in the price of goods - 10,300 conventional units. The overall increase in trade turnover was 87.2%. It should be noted that according to the calculated indices of the quantity of goods by assortment, there is a slight increase in turnover for product “P” by 120% and product “C” by 110%, a slight increase in sales of product “T” is only 103%. Sales of goods “P” decreased quite significantly - only 66.7% of sales in the base year, sales of goods “N” were slightly higher - 87.5% and goods “O” - 90.9% of the corresponding indicator for the base year. The individual price index shows that the price increased only for the product “O” - by 105.3%, while at the same time for all other product names - “N”, “P”, “R”, “S”, “T” the individual price index indicates negative dynamics (decrease), respectively – 90.9%; 93.3%;, 96.3%, 88.9; 93.8.

The general index of physical sales volume indicates a slight decrease in total sales volume by 94.6%; the general price index indicates a general decrease in the price of goods sold by 92.2%, and the general trade turnover index indicates a general decrease in trade turnover by 87.2%.

TASK 4

From the initial data of table No. 1 (select rows from 14 to 23) based on two characteristics - length of service and wages - conduct a correlation-regression analysis, determine the parameters of correlation and determination. Construct a graph of the correlation between two characteristics (resultative and factorial). Draw a conclusion.

SOLUTION

Initial data

Production experience	Salary amount
	1800
	2500
	1750
	1580
	1750
	1560
	1210
	1860
	1355
	1480

Straight-line dependence

The parameters of the equation are determined using the least squares method, using the system of normal equations

To solve the system we use the method of determinants.

Parameters are calculated using formulas

The result of the first stage of statistical research - statistical observation - is information characterizing each unit of the statistical population. However, the ability to reflect patterns and trends in the dynamics of the phenomena being studied using even the most complete characterization of individual facts is limited. Such data is obtained only as a result of statistical summaries. A summary is the arrangement, systematization and generalization of statistical data obtained during statistical observation. Only proper processing of statistical material makes it possible to identify the essence of socio-economic phenomena, the characteristic features and essential features of individual types, and to discover patterns and trends in their development. There are simple and group reports, or reports in the narrow and broad sense. A simple summary is the calculation of the overall results in groups and subgroups and the presentation of this material in tables. As a result of a simple summary of statistical data, it is possible to determine the number of enterprises, the total number of personnel, and the volume of products produced in monetary terms. These overall results are primarily for informational purposes. They provide a generalized characteristic of the population in the form of absolute values.

Group summary, or summary in a broad sense, is a complex process of multilateral processing of primary statistical data, i.e. data obtained as a result of observation. It includes grouping statistical data, developing a system of indicators to characterize groups, calculating group and overall results, and calculating generalizing indicators. The task of the statistical summary as the second stage of statistical research is to obtain general indicators for information, reference and analytical purposes. The summary of mass statistical data is carried out according to a pre-developed program and plan. During the program development process, the subject and predicate of the summary are determined. The subject is the object of study, divided into groups and subgroups. Predicate - indicators that characterize the subject of the summary. The summary program is determined by the objectives of the statistical study.

The statistical summary is carried out according to a pre-drawn plan. In terms of summaries, questions are addressed about how to carry out the work of summarizing information - manually or mechanically, and about the sequence of individual summation operations. The deadlines for completing each stage and the summary as a whole are established, as well as methods for presenting the results of the summary. These can be distribution series, statistical tables and statistical graphs.

received materials.

generalizing indicators.

Each observation is carried out for a specific purpose. When conducting it, it is necessary to establish what is subject to examination. The following issues need to be resolved:

Observation object

Unit of observation

Census

Sign

The observation program is drawn up in the form of forms (questionnaires, forms) in which primary data is entered. A necessary addition to the forms is instructions that explain the meaning of the questions.

observation period;

preparatory work;

For example, the critical moment of the micro-census of 94. was 0.00 o'clock on the night of February 13-14. By establishing the critical moment of observation, it is possible to determine the true state of affairs with photographic accuracy.

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Stages of statistical research. Data collected during the first stage of statistical research - statistical observation - on the value of any attribute of the population being studied

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Collected during the first stage of statistical research - statistical observation – data on the value of any characteristic of the population being studied must be processed so as to obtain an accurate and detailed answer to all questions posed by the purpose of the study. The task of the second stage of statistical research is statistical processing (reports) - consists of organizing and generalizing the primary material, bringing it into groups and, on this basis, giving a generalized description of the totality. The quality of the source statistical material determines the quality of the summary indicators obtained as a result of the statistical summary.

Distinguish summary simple and complex (statistical grouping).

Simple summary is an operation for calculating totals for a set of observation units. Complex summary is a set of operations that includes grouping observation units, calculating totals for each group and for the entire population, and presenting the summary and grouping results in the form of statistical tables.

Statistical grouping comes down to dividing the population into groups according to selected characteristic that is significant for units of the population (grouping characteristic ). The choice of grouping characteristic, i.e. sign , according to which the units of the population under study are combined into groups, – one of the most significant and complex issues in grouping theory and statistical research . The results of the entire statistical study often depend on the correct choice of grouping characteristics.

Statistical observation. Stages of statistical research

Grouping allows you to obtain results from which you can identify the composition of the population, the characteristic features and properties of typical phenomena, and discover patterns and relationships.

The simplest and most commonly used way to summarize statistical data is distribution series . The statistical series (law) of distribution is the numerical distribution of population units according to the characteristic being studied. Let some SV be discrete, i.e. can only take fixed (on some scale) values X i. In this case, a number of probability values P(X i) for all ( i=1, 2, …, n) permissible values of this quantity are called its distribution law.

Depending on the grouping characteristic used, statistical series can be attributive and variational (quantitative).

Attribute series distributions reflect the qualitative state of population units (person’s gender, marital status, industry sector of the enterprise, its form of ownership, etc.), and variational – have a numerical expression (production volume, family income, person’s age, grade point, etc.).

An example of an attribute series is the distribution of students in a group by gender.

Variational (quantitative) grouped series can be discrete or interval . A discrete variational distribution series is a series in which the numerical distribution of population units according to a discrete characteristic is expressed by a finite integer value. An example would be the distribution of workers by grade, the distribution of city families by number of children, etc. An interval distribution series is a series in which the characteristic values are specified as an interval. The construction of interval variation series is advisable primarily for random variables characterized by continuous variation of a characteristic (that is, when the value of a characteristic in population units can take on any value, at least within certain limits).

So, the law of probability distribution of a discrete SV carries all the information about it. This law (or simply the distribution of a random variable) can be specified in three ways:

— in the form of a table of value values and their corresponding probabilities;

- in the form of a diagram or, as it is sometimes called, a distribution histogram;

— in the form of a formula, for example, for normal, binomial, etc. distribution.

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Stages of statistical research

Stages of statistical research.

Statistical research- this is a scientifically organized collection, summary and analysis of data (facts) about socio-economic, demographic and other phenomena and processes of social life in the state with the registration of their most significant features in accounting documentation, organized according to a unified program.

The distinctive features (specificity) of statistical research are: purposefulness, organization, mass participation, systematicity (complexity), comparability, documentation, controllability, practicality.

Statistical research consists of three main stages:

1) collection of primary statistical information(statistical observation) – observation, collection of data on the values of the studied characteristic of statistical units, which is the foundation of future statistical analysis. If an error is made during the collection of primary statistical data or the material turns out to be of poor quality, this will affect the correctness and reliability of both theoretical and practical conclusions.

2) statistical summary and processing of primary information– data is systematized and grouped. The results of statistical groupings and summaries are presented in the form of statistical tables; this is the most rational, systematized, compact and visual form of presenting mass data.

3) generalization and interpretation of statistical information— analysis of statistical information is carried out.

All these stages are interconnected; the absence of one of them leads to a breakdown in the integrity of the statistical study.

Stages of statistical research

1. Goal setting

2. Definition of the object of observation

3. Definition of units of observation

4. Drawing up a research program

5.Drawing up instructions for filling out the form

6. Summary and grouping of data (brief analysis)

Basic concepts and categories of statistical science.

1. Statistical population- this is a set of phenomena that have one or more common characteristics and differ from each other in the values of other characteristics. These are, for example, a set of households, a set of families, a set of enterprises, firms, associations, etc.

2. Sign – this is a property, a characteristic feature of a phenomenon that is subject to statistical study

3. Statistical indicator– this is a generalizing quantitative characteristic of social-economic phenomena and processes in their qualitative certainty under the conditions of a specific place and time. Statistical indicators can be divided into two main types: accounting and evaluation indicators (sizes, volumes, levels of the phenomenon being studied) and analytical indicators (relative and average values, indicators of variation, etc.).

4. Unit of knowledge– this is each individual subject to statistical study.

5. Variation– this is the variability of the value of a sign in individual units of social phenomena.

6. Regularity– call the repeatability and order of change in phenomena.

Main stages of statistical observation.

Old observation is a scientifically based collection of data on the social-economic phenomenon of public life.

CH stages:

1. Preparation for statistical observation - involves the use of the method of mass observation, CT is nothing more than the collection of primary statistical information. (solving scientific, methodological, organizational and technical issues).

2. Summary and grouping of primary statistical data– the collected information using the statistical grouping method is generalized and distributed in a certain way. including the work, begins with the distribution of census forms, questionnaires, forms, statistical reporting forms and ends with their delivery after completion to the bodies conducting surveillance.

3. Analysis of statistical information– using the method of generalizing indicators, statistical information is analyzed.

4. Development of proposals for improving SN– the reasons that led to the incorrect filling out of statistical forms are analyzed and proposals are developed to improve monitoring.

Obtaining information during a heart failure CT scan requires considerable financial, labor and time expenditure. (opinion polls)

Grouping of statistical data.

Grouping- this is the division of people into groups according to essential characteristics.

Reasons for grouping: the originality of the object of statistical research.

Using the grouping method, the following problems are solved: identifying social-economic types and phenomena; studying the structure of the phenomenon and structural shifts occurring in it; identifying connections and dependencies between phenomena.

These problems are solved using typological, structural and analytical groupings.

Typological group– identification of types of social and economic phenomena (group of industrial enterprises by type of ownership)

Structural group– study of structure and structural shifts. With the help of such groups, the following can be studied: the composition of us by gender, age, place of residence, etc.

Analytical group– identifying the relationship between characteristics.

Stages of building a SG:

1. selection of a grouping characteristic

2. determination of the required number of groups into which it is necessary to divide the society under study

3. set the boundaries of the group intervals

4. establishing for each group of indicators or their system, which should characterize the selected groups.

Grouping systems.

Grouping system is a series of interrelated statistical groupings based on the most significant characteristics, comprehensively reflecting the most important aspects of the phenomena being studied.

Typological group- this is the division of the qualitatively heterogeneous society under study into classes, social and economic types (group of industrial enterprises by type of ownership)

Structural group– characterizes the composition of a homogeneous population according to certain characteristics. With the help of such groups, the following can be studied: the composition of us by gender, age, place of residence, etc.

Analytical group– used when studying the relationships between characteristics, one of them is factorial (influences changes in performance), the other is effective (signs that change under the influence of factors).

Construction and types of distribution series.

Stat distribution series- this is an ordered distribution of owl units into groups according to a certain varying characteristic.

Distinguish: attributive and variational distribution rads.

Attributive– these are r.r. built according to qualitative characteristics. R.r. It is customary to present them in the form of tables. They characterize the composition of societies according to existing characteristics, taken over several periods; these data make it possible to study changes in structure.

Variational– these are r.r. built on a quantitative basis. Any variation series consists of 2 elements: options and frequencies.

Options The individual values of the characteristic are considered, which it takes in the variation series, i.e.

specific value of a varying characteristic.

Frequencies– these are the number of individual options or each group of the variation series, i.e. These are numbers showing how often certain options occur in the r.r.

Variation series:

1.discrete– characterizes the distribution of units of society according to a discrete characteristic (distribution of families by the number of rooms in individual apartments).

2.interval– the sign is presented as an interval; It is advisable primarily for continuous variation of a trait.

The most convenient way is r.r. analyze using their graphical representation, which allows one to judge the shape of the distribution. A visual representation of the nature of changes in the frequencies of a variation series is given by a polygon and a histogram; there are ogives and cumulates.

Statistical tables.

ST is a rational and common form of presenting statistical data.

A table is the most rational, visual and compact form of presenting statistical material.

The main techniques that determine the technique of forming the ST trace:

1. T must be compact and contain only those initial data that directly reflect the social-economic phenomenon being studied in the article.

2.The title of the table and the names of columns and rows must be clear and concise.

3. The information is located in the columns (columns) of the table, ending with a summary line.

5. It is useful to number columns and lines, etc.

According to the logical content, STs represent a “state sentence”, the main elements of which are the subject and the predicate.

Subject the name of the object, characterized by numbers. this might be one or more owls, separate units of owls.

Predicate ST are indicators that characterize the object of study, i.e. subject of the table. The predicate is the top headings and the state of the content of the graph from left to right.

9. The concept of absolute value in statistics .

Stat pok-whether is a qualitatively defined variable that quantitatively characterizes the object of study or its properties.

A.v. is a general indicator characterizing the size, scale or volume of a particular phenomenon in specific conditions of place and time.

Ways of expression: natural units (t., pcs., quantity); labor dimension (work. Vr, labor-intensive); value expression

Methods of obtaining: registration of facts, summary and grouping, calculation according to defined methodology (GDP, ratings, etc.)

Types of AB: 1.individual AB – characterize individual elements of general phenomena 2. Total AB – character indicators for a group of objects.

Absolute change (/_\) – the difference between 2 AB.

Stages and methods of statistical research

Statistical research consists of three main stages:

Statistical observation- this is the first stage. During this process, primary statistical information and data are collected, which will become the basis for future statistical analysis. Methods of statistical observation are represented by censuses, statistical reporting, questionnaires, and sample observation.

Statistical summary- this is the second stage. During it, primary information is processed; specific individual information that forms a set is generalized in order to identify typical features and patterns inherent in the phenomenon being studied as a whole. The main method of statistical summary is grouping, when the phenomena being studied are divided into the most important types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential characteristics. The results of the statistical grouping and summary are presented in the form of tables and graphs.

Generalization and analysis of statistical information- This is the third stage. Statistical analysis is the final stage of statistical research.

The main stages of the analysis are the following:

1. establishment of facts and their assessment;

2. establishing the characteristic features and causes of the phenomenon;

3. comparison of the phenomenon with basic phenomena - normative, planned and others;

4. formulation of hypotheses, conclusions and assumptions;

5. statistical testing of the proposed hypotheses using special generalizing statistical indicators.

Summary indicators- absolute, relative, average values and index systems - are used precisely at this stage. The general features of the formation of generalizing indicators are established by measuring their deviations and bringing them to an average indicator. The study of deviations - “variations” - together with the use of average and relative values is of great practical and scientific importance. Indicators of deviations of “variations” characterize the degree of homogeneity of the statistical population according to the required characteristic. Indicators of “variation” determine the degree and boundaries of variation. Of significant interest is the relationship between the characteristics of “variations”.

All these three stages are inextricably linked by organic unity. Thus, carrying out statistical observation is meaningless without further analysis, and analysis is impossible without information obtained at the stage of primary data processing.

Processing of empirical research data is usually divided into several stages:

1) Primary data processing:

— Drawing up tables;

— Transformation of the form of information;

- Data checking.

2) Statistical data analysis:

— Analysis of primary statistics;

— Assessing the reliability of differences;

— Data normalization;

— Correlation analysis;

- Factor analysis.

In most cases, it is advisable to begin data processing by compiling summary tables.

Data summary table- this is a kind of “accumulator” of all data obtained as a result of the research; ideally, it should contain data from all subjects using all research methods. Typically, pivot tables are compiled in Microsoft Office Excel, or Word, Access.

The basis for the summary table of source data is the following form. Each line contains the values of all indicators of one subject. Each column (field) contains the values of one indicator for all subjects. Thus, in each cell (cell) of the table only one value of one indicator of one subject is recorded. The very top line gives the subject’s serial number, full name (or some other identifier), measured indicators, scale ratings, etc. This line makes it easier to navigate the table. Each subsequent line contains the name of the subject and the values of all parameters measured; of course, for all subjects in the same order of indicators.

Subjects can be listed in alphabetical order, but it is better to use this principle at the lowest level of division. First, it is better to divide the subjects according to their membership in any subgroups that will be compared with each other. Within these subgroups, it is useful to order the subjects by gender, age, or other parameter that is important to you.

Transformation of information form.

It is advisable to enter into the table all the characteristics you are interested in in the form of a decimal number, that is, first recalculate minutes into decimals of an hour, seconds into decimals of a minute, the number of months into a decimal of a year, etc. This is necessary because the data format for most computer programs currently in use imposes its own limitations. Also try not to enter various text symbols (dots, commas, dashes, etc.) into the table unless absolutely necessary.

All information that can be encoded in numbers is better converted into numerical form. This will provide more opportunities for different types of data processing. The exception is the first line, which contains the names (usually short names - abbreviations) of the measured indicators. In the form of numbers in the table, you can enter information about those sample parameters that presumably may turn out to be significant factors, but are available in your qualitative indicators.

Methods and main stages of statistical research

The simplest operations can be: numerical coding (men - 1, women - 2; those who have completed training - 1, those who have not completed - 2, etc.) and the translation of quality indicators into ranks.

Data checking.

After creating a table on paper or a computer, you need to check the quality of the data obtained. To do this, it is often enough to carefully examine the data set. The check should begin by identifying errors (misprints), which consist in the fact that the order of the number is written incorrectly. For example, 100 is written instead of 10, 9.4 - instead of 94, etc. If you look closely at the columns, this is easy to detect, since it is relatively rare to find parameters that vary greatly. Most often, the values of one parameter have the same order or nearest orders. When collecting data on a computer, it is important to comply with the requirements for the data format in the statistical program used. First of all, this applies to the sign that must separate the integer part from the fractional part in a decimal number (period or comma).

Using methods of mathematical statistics when processing primary empirical data data is necessary to increase the reliability of the conclusions of scientific research. It is not recommended to limit yourself to using such indicators as arithmetic averages and percentages. They most often do not provide sufficient grounds for valid conclusions from empirical data.

The choice of method for statistical analysis of the obtained empirical data is a very important and responsible part of the study. And it’s better to do this before the data is received. When planning a study, it is necessary to think in advance what empirical indicators will be recorded, with what methods they will be processed, and what conclusions can be drawn with different processing results.

When choosing a statistical criterion it is necessary, first of all, to identify the type of variables (traits) and the measurement scale that was used to measure indicators and other variables - for example, age, family composition, level of education. Variables can be any indicators that can be compared with each other (that is, measured). It should be borne in mind that nominative and ordinal scales can be widely used in research: verbal and non-verbal behavioral reactions, gender, level of education - all this can be considered as variables. The main thing is to have clear and precise criteria for classifying them as one or another type, depending on the hypotheses and tasks set.

When choosing a statistical criterion, you also need to focus on the type of data distribution that was obtained in the study. Parametric criteria are used when the distribution of the obtained data is considered normal. A normal distribution is more likely (but not necessarily) obtained with samples of more than 100 subjects (it may work with a smaller number, but it may not work with a larger number). When using parametric tests, it is necessary to check the normality of the distribution.

For nonparametric tests, the type of data distribution does not matter. With small sample sizes of subjects, it is advisable to choose nonparametric tests that give greater confidence to the conclusions, regardless of whether the study has a normal distribution of data. In some cases, statistically valid conclusions can be drawn even with samples of 5-10 subjects.

Many studies look for differences in measured indicators among subjects who have certain characteristics. When processing relevant data, criteria can be used to identify differences in the level of the characteristic being studied or in its distribution. To determine the significance of differences in the manifestation of a trait, studies often use indicators such as the paired Wilcoxon test, the Mann-Whitney U test, the x-square test (x2), Fisher’s exact test, and the binomial test.

Many studies search for relationships between the studied indicators in the same subjects. Correlation coefficients can be used to process the relevant data. The relationship of quantities with each other and their dependence is often characterized by the Pearson linear correlation coefficient and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient.

The structure of the data (and, accordingly, the structure of the reality being studied), as well as their relationship, is revealed by factor analysis.

In many studies, interest is in analyzing the variability of a trait under the influence of some controlled factors, or, in other words, assessing the influence of various factors on the trait being studied. For mathematical processing of data in such problems, the Mann-Whitney U-test, the Kruskal-Wallis test, the Wilcoxon T-test, the? 2 Friedman. However, to study the influence, and even more so the mutual influence of several factors on the parameter being studied, analysis of variance may be more useful. The researcher proceeds from the assumption that some variables can be considered as causes, and others as effects. Variables of the first kind are considered factors, and variables of the second kind are considered to be effective characteristics. This is the difference between analysis of variance and correlation analysis, in which it is assumed that changes in one characteristic are simply associated with certain changes in another.

Many studies reveal the significance of changes (shifts) in any parameters and manifestations over a certain period of time, under certain conditions (for example, under conditions of correctional influence). Formative experiments in practical psychology solve precisely this problem. To process the corresponding data, coefficients can be used to assess the reliability of the shift in the values of the characteristic being studied. For this purpose, sign tests and the Wilcoxon T-test are often used.

It is important to pay attention to the limitations that each criterion has. If one criterion is not suitable for analyzing the available data, you can always find another one, perhaps by changing the type of presentation of the data itself. Before performing statistical analysis on empirical data, it is useful to check whether there are critical values appropriate for the amount and type of data you have. Otherwise, you may be disappointed when your calculations turn out to be in vain due to the absence of critical values in the table for the sample size that you had.

After becoming familiar with the procedure for calculating the criterion, you can carry out “manual” data processing or use a statistical program on a personal computer.

The most popular programs for computer processing are SPSS and Statistica.

The use of statistical programs in computer processing speeds up the processing of material by several orders of magnitude and makes available to the researcher such methods of analysis that cannot be implemented in manual processing. However, these advantages can be fully exploited if the researcher has the necessary level of training in this field. Typically, the more powerful a computer program is (the wider its capabilities), the more time it requires to master. Thus, spending time studying it with rare access to a powerful statistical apparatus is not entirely effective. Very often, using such programs to solve even simple problems also requires a certain amount of skills.

In order to avoid unnecessary difficulties and time costs, it is much more effective to turn to professionals. They will qualitatively and professionally carry out all the necessary mathematical and statistical analysis of your research data: analysis of primary statistics, assessment of the reliability of differences, data normalization, correlation and factor analysis, etc.

After carrying out the necessary statistical analysis of the data, it is necessary to correlate the results obtained with the initially posed hypothesis, with the theoretical justifications of the authors who studied this topic and previous researchers. Formulate conclusions and interpret the results obtained.

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Main stages of statistical research

Let's consider the most important method of statistics - statistical observation.

Using various methods and techniques of statistical methodology

presupposes the availability of comprehensive and reliable information about what is being studied

object. The study of mass social phenomena includes stages of collection

statistical information and its primary processing, information and grouping

observation results into certain aggregates, generalization and analysis

received materials.

At the first stage of statistical research, primary

statistical data, or raw statistical information that

is the foundation of the future statistical building. So that the building is

its foundation must be strong, sound and of high quality. If when collecting

there was an error in the primary statistical data or the material turned out to be

of poor quality, it will affect the correctness and reliability of both

theoretical and practical conclusions. Therefore, statistical

observation from the initial to the final stage - obtaining the final

materials - must be carefully thought out and clearly organized.

Statistical observation provides the source material for generalization, the beginning

which the summary serves. If during statistical observation about each of its

unit receives information characterizing it from many aspects, then the data

reports characterize the entire statistical population and its individual parts.

At this stage, the totality is divided according to differences and united according to

signs of similarity, total indicators are calculated for groups and in

in general. Using the grouping method, the phenomena being studied are divided into the most important

types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential characteristics. By using

groupings are limited by qualitatively homogeneous in significant respects

totality, which is a prerequisite for the definition and application

generalizing indicators.

At the final stage of analysis using generalizing indicators

relative and average values are calculated and a summary assessment is given

variations of signs, the dynamics of phenomena are characterized, indices are used,

balance sheet constructions, indicators characterizing crowding are calculated

connections in changes in characteristics. For the purpose of the most rational and visual

Presentation of digital material is presented in the form of tables and graphs.

3.Statistical observation: concept, basic forms.

This is scientific and organizational work on data collection. Forms:stat. 1) reporting, cat. is based on documentary accounting. Since 1998, 4 unified forms of federal state supervision have been introduced: FP-1 (production of enterprises), FP-2 (investment), FP-3 (financial state of organizations), FP-4 (number - number of workers, labor), 2) specially organized observation (census), 3) register - this is a set of units, cat.har-t of each unit of observation: registers of us- research, production, construction and contracting organizations, retail and wholesale trade. Types of observation: 1) continuous, non-continuous (selective, qualified based on the main array method, monograph). The observation can be current, periodic, one-time. Methods of observation: direct, documentary, survey (expedition, questionnaire, personal appearance, correspondence). Statistical observations are carried out according to a plan, which includes: program and methodological issues (goals, objectives), organizational issues (time, place). As a result of the observations carried out, errors arise, which reduce the accuracy of the observations, so data control is carried out (logical and counting). As a result of checking the reliability of the data, the following observation errors are revealed: random. errors (registration errors), intentional errors, unintentional errors. (systemic and non-systemic), errors of representativeness (representativeness).

Program and methodological issues of statistical observation.

Program and methodological issues of statistical observation

Each observation is carried out for a specific purpose.

When conducting it, it is necessary to establish what is subject to examination. The following issues need to be resolved:

Observation object – a set of objects and phenomena from which information must be collected. When defining an object, its main distinctive features (signs) are indicated. Every object of mass observation consists of individual units, so it is necessary to resolve the question of what element of the aggregate that will serve as the unit of observation.

Unit of observation – this is a component element of an object, which is the carrier of characteristics subject to registration and the basis of the account.

Census – these are certain quantitative restrictions for the object of observation.

Sign - this is a property that characterizes certain features and characteristics inherent in the units of the population being studied.

Organizational issues of statistical observation.

The observation program is drawn up in the form of forms (questionnaires, forms) in which primary data is entered.

A necessary addition to the forms is instructions that explain the meaning of the questions.

Organizational issues of the program include:

observation period;

critical moment of observation;

preparatory work;

The observation period to which the recorded information relates. Called objective observation time. This might be a certain period of time (day, decade, month) or a certain moment. The moment to which the recorded information relates is called the critical moment of observation.

For example, the critical moment of the micro-census of 94. it was 0.00 o'clock

on the night of February 13-14. By establishing the critical moment of observation, it is possible to determine the true state of affairs with photographic accuracy.

Preparatory work involves providing surveillance with documents, as well as compiling a list of reporting units, forms, and instructions.

Documents will be filled out during the observation or based on its results.

An important place in the system of preparatory work is the selection and training of personnel, as well as briefing of those who will participate in the observation.

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Stages of statistical research.

Stage 1: Statistical observation.

Stage 2: Consolidation and grouping of observation results into specific aggregates.

Stage 3: Generalization and analysis of the received materials. Identification of relationships and scales of phenomena, determination of patterns of their development, development of forecast estimates. It is important to have comprehensive and reliable information about the object being studied.

At the first stage of statistical research, primary statistical data, or initial statistical information, is formed, which is the foundation of the future statistical “building”.

STAGES OF STATISTICAL RESEARCH

For a “building” to be durable, its foundation must be sound and of high quality. If an error is made during the collection of primary statistical data or the material turns out to be of poor quality, this will affect the correctness and reliability of both theoretical and practical conclusions. Therefore, statistical observation from the initial to the final stage must be carefully thought out and clearly organized.

Statistical observation provides the source material for generalization, the beginning of which is summary. If, during statistical observation, information is obtained about each of its units that characterizes it from many aspects, then these summaries characterize the entire statistical aggregate and its individual parts. At this stage, the population is divided according to signs of difference and united according to signs of similarity, and total indicators are calculated for groups and as a whole. Using the grouping method, the phenomena being studied are divided into the most important types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential characteristics. With the help of groupings, qualitatively homogeneous populations are limited, which is a prerequisite for the definition and application of generalizing indicators.

At the final stage of the analysis, using general indicators, relative and average values are calculated, an assessment of the variation of characteristics is given, the dynamics of phenomena are characterized, indices and balance sheets are used, indicators are calculated that characterize the closeness of connections in changes in characteristics. For the purpose of the most rational and visual presentation of digital material, it is presented in the form of tables and graphs.

Cognitive value of statistics thing is:

1) statistics provide digital and meaningful coverage of the phenomena and processes being studied and serve as the most reliable way to assess reality; 2) statistics provide evidentiary power to economic conclusions and allow one to verify various “current” statements and individual theoretical propositions; 3) statistics has the ability to reveal the relationships between phenomena, show their form and strength.

1. STATISTICAL OBSERVATION

1.1. Basic Concepts

Statistical observation — This is the first stage of statistical research, which is a scientifically organized accounting of facts characterizing the phenomena and processes of social life, and the collection of data obtained on the basis of this accounting.

However, not every collection of information is a statistical observation. We can talk about statistical observation only when statistical patterns are studied, i.e. those that manifest themselves in a mass process, in a large number of units of some aggregate. Therefore, statistical observation should be planned, massive and systematic.

Planfulness statistical observation lies in the fact that it is prepared and carried out according to a developed plan, which includes issues of methodology, organization, collection of information, quality control of the collected material, its reliability, and presentation of the final results.

Mass the nature of statistical observation suggests that it covers a large number of cases of manifestation of a given process, sufficient to obtain true data characterizing not only individual units, but the entire population as a whole.

Systematicity statistical observation is determined by the fact that it must be carried out either systematically, or continuously, or regularly.

The following requirements apply to statistical observation:

1) completeness of statistical data (completeness of coverage of units of the population being studied, aspects of a particular phenomenon, as well as completeness of coverage over time);

2) reliability and accuracy of data;

3) their uniformity and comparability.

Any statistical study must begin with the formulation of its goals and objectives. After this, the object and unit of observation are determined, a program is developed, and the type and method of observation are selected.

Observation object- a set of socio-economic phenomena and processes that are subject to research, or the exact boundaries within which statistical information will be recorded . For example, during a population census it is necessary to establish what kind of population is subject to registration - existing, i.e., actually located in a given area at the time of the census, or permanent, i.e., permanently living in a given area. When surveying industry, it is necessary to establish which enterprises will be classified as industrial. In a number of cases, one or another qualification is used to limit the object of observation. Census- a restrictive criterion that must be satisfied by all units of the population being studied. So, for example, when taking a census of production equipment, it is necessary to determine what is classified as production equipment and what is classified as hand tools, what equipment is subject to the census - only operating equipment or also under repair, in a warehouse, or in reserve.

Unit of observation is called a component of the object of observation, which serves as the basis for calculation and has characteristics that are subject to registration during observation.

For example, in a population census, the unit of observation is each individual person. If the task is also to determine the number and composition of households, then the unit of observation, along with the person, will be each household.

Surveillance program- this is a list of issues on which information is collected, or a list of characteristics and indicators to be registered . The observation program is drawn up in the form of a form (questionnaire, form) in which primary information is entered. A necessary addition to the form is instructions (or instructions on the forms themselves) explaining the meaning of the question. The composition and content of the questions in the observation program depend on the objectives of the study and on the characteristics of the social phenomenon being studied.