Forecast of economic development for the year. The mayor updated the macroeconomic forecast

It is worth saying that the department’s latest forecast is characterized by not very optimistic indicators - estimates of the expected GDP growth rates for the period from 2017 to 2019 were revised downward by experts. Of all the macroeconomic indicators announced by the department, only inflation rates inspire some optimism. It is expected that by the beginning of 2018 they will slow down to 4% per year.

The Ministry of Economic Development predicts Russia's GDP growth within 0.9%

As for GDP, analysts from the Ministry of Economic Development believe that Russia is unlikely to demonstrate the previously adopted figure of 1.7% in 2018. The current forecast is GDP growth of 0.9%. Forecasts for 2019 have also been adjusted - if previously it was assumed that the Russian economy would be able to demonstrate growth of 2.1%, today they are talking about a value of 1.2%.

The reason for the adjustment was sharply worsened forecasts for oil prices. Experts do not expect prices above $41-45 per barrel. As a result, a new one had to be announced - 71.1 rubles per dollar in 2018-2019, which is significantly lower than the previously expected level of 64.5 rubles.

Forecast of the Central Bank of Russia

According to forecasts voiced by Elvira Nabiulinna (the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation), analysts at the bank under her control believe that in 2017 and 2018 the Russian economy will show moderate growth, which will range from 1.7 to 2.3% per year. The country's chief banker named the increase in domestic demand, which will be accompanied by an increase in consumption and investment, as the main active factor.

Nabiulinna also voiced several scenarios for the further development of the Russian economy, saying that each of them has approximately the same probability of becoming a reality. The scenarios were based on the following assumptions:

• for the first scenario, called optimistic, the basis is the forecast that oil prices will reach $80 per barrel by the second half of 2018;
• A conservative forecast suggests that the price of a barrel of black gold will rise to $60 per unit.

The Central Bank specialists have a traditionally optimistic view of inflation, which should fall to 4% by the end of 2018.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation predicts strong economic growth for Russia

Forecast from RANEPA and the Institute of Economic Policy

Most macro forecasts published by non-governmental Russian economic organizations contain even more pessimistic data. For example, specialists from RANEPA and the Institute of Economic Policy named after. E.T. Gaidar expects that in 2018 the country is unlikely to show growth above 0.8%, and the improvement in 2019 will be characterized by 1.5% GDP growth.

Experts from these organizations explain the optimistic statements of the Ministry of Economic Development by saying that the government department simply cannot issue a pessimistic forecast. In this case, the country's leadership will consider the work of the Ministry of Economy ineffective, so they have to embellish the real figures. But you shouldn’t think that the stabilization of oil prices and the slowdown of inflation processes should become reasons to relax, say experts from RANEPA.

They believe that overly optimistic data is a direct path to slowing down much-needed reforms in Russia. The report of this institution contains information that the Russian economy will remain as unstable in the near future - even if the income of Russians grows, the population will not rush to spend money, preferring to accumulate it, so there can be no talk of any significant increase in consumption.

In the best case, analysts say, market stabilization will begin towards the end of 2019. Let us recall that this position is fundamentally different from government statements, because not so long ago it was reported that Russia passed the bottom of the crisis back in 2015, and today is demonstrating a steady trend towards promising growth. RANEPA also published two probable scenarios for the development of the situation in the country, based on optimistic and pessimistic oil price forecasts.

• The base version of the forecast states that quotes will be set at $40 per unit of volume. At the same time, Russia’s GDP will show growth of no more than 1.4% in 2018, and the dollar will cost about 69-72 rubles. With such forecasts, it is assumed that in two years Russian households will return to the pre-crisis level of consumption, and from 2019 a stable increase in domestic investment in industry will begin. This scenario is considered by experts to be the most likely, so it is advisable to take these calculations into account when making adjustments to the three-year budget for 2017-2019;
• In the optimistic version of the scenario for 2018, it is assumed that oil will rise to $60 per barrel, which will lead to GDP growth of up to 1.9%, and the ruble will strengthen, reaching a quote of 57 rubles per US dollar. This will lead to increased revenue from oil and gas sales and a reduction in the budget deficit. If this scenario is realized, experts predict an increase in the standard of living of Russians with a slight increase in social obligations from the state and business.

Inflation is likely to reach 6% in 2018, exacerbating problems

The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade also does not support the inflation expectations in the forecast - experts say that, at best, Russia will end 2018 with inflation of 6%. At the same time, economists from the Gaidar Institute and RANEPA say that the growth rate of the country’s economy in any of the considered scenarios will not reach the level of countries classified as world leaders.

According to estimates from the Gaidar Institute, economic restructuring and reorientation of production should lead to federal budget revenue in 2017-2019 being even lower than in the previous two years. In 2017, revenues from the sale of oil and gas may amount to about 37.4% of Russia's budget revenues, but already in 2019 this figure will decrease to 36.0%.

Economic forecasts from TsMAKP

Experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting show the Russians the most negative calculations, saying that uncertain trends in the domestic market with remaining external risks may well lead to a new crisis wave in 2018. The analysts' conclusions can be summarized as follows:

• even if the most optimistic scenario is implemented, with oil prices at $55 per barrel, GDP growth will be no more than 0.5%, and in the case of the base case, which assumes oil at $40 per unit of volume, Russia will end the year with zero results;
• under the most optimistic forecast, the real income of Russians will increase by 2.2%. If the base case scenario becomes reality, we should not expect growth of more than 1.1%. Moreover, in the last six months alone this figure has shown a drop of 5%.

Analytics of the Higher School of Economics

Experts from the Higher School of Economics speak about Russia's future in an even more negative light, explaining it as follows: there are no prerequisites for the Russian economy to show growth in 2018. Among the main factors that have a noticeable negative impact, analysts cite the lack of investment activity, high risks that are completely impossible to calculate, and the almost complete zeroing of the Reserve Fund.

As a result, according to the conclusions of Valery Mironov, who holds the post of Deputy Director of the HSE Development Center, Russia can confidently expect a continuation of the recession, which will be accompanied by GDP growth of no more than 1% in 2018.

The Higher School of Economics predicts a financial recession in the Russian Federation in 2018.

Forecasts of international organizations and agencies

Foreign experts have somewhat improved their assessments of the Russian economic future, but they still remain far from the optimistic indicators that economists from government departments predict for Russians.

Forecast from the World Bank

Experts from this international organization conducted a comprehensive study of the indicators characterizing the Russian economy and formulated the main directions for overcoming the crisis situation and stimulating the rate of restoration of its growth in the near future.

The main points of reform are the development and implementation of innovative approaches to business regulation. It is important to direct them to eliminate the maximum number of existing restrictions, most of which are administrative in nature. In addition, among the problems, World Bank experts name the lack of necessary market infrastructure, restrictions in the field of innovation, problems in the investment climate and depreciation of fixed assets.

Separately mentioned is the need to stimulate the development of qualifications among the workforce, since, despite the high level of education, workers almost never engage in improving highly specialized skills in the profession due to the lack of incentives from employers. It was also noted that the crisis in pension provision can only be overcome.

The World Bank proposes to the Russian government to raise the retirement age

Analysts from the World Bank suggest that in the next few years the country's GDP will not tend to change significantly. Most likely, we can only hope for a slight increase of 1.5% in 2017 and no more than 1.7% in 2018. This increase is associated only with oil prices, which experts predict a slight increase to $55.2 per barrel in 2017 and 59.2 dollars per barrel in 2018.

However, even such positive dynamics in oil prices does not give reason to hope for a significant improvement in economic life. Until Russia takes the path of economic diversification, external risks arising from the volatility of commodity prices in the markets will continue to have a negative impact on it.

Experts from the World Bank suggest that the government can somewhat mitigate potential risks by increasing wages and intensifying investment in order to provoke increased demand for goods and services from the population, as well as provide injections into the national economy from the business sector.

Forecast from Standard & Poor’s Global Rating

Experts from the analytical agency Standart & Poor’s adhere to approximately the same forecast regarding GDP growth, predicting positive changes in the Russian economy as early as 2017, when, according to their calculations, GDP will increase by 1.4%. However, this is not the optimal value for a country that is going through times of crisis. In the case of stable commodity prices, Russia can expect that in 2018 the level of GDP will “grow” by another 1.6% in relation to the previous year.

Agency analysts say that even such a slight increase in macroeconomic indicators will make it possible to improve the functioning of the banking sector, but one cannot yet count on an increase in consumption by the Russian population. The fall in real incomes of Russians has had a very negative impact on their propensity to consume, and to reverse this trend, a fairly significant increase in wages is required, which experts from Standard & Poor’s estimate at at least 10% per year.

Standard & Poor’s predicts a deepening of the crisis - all because the 10% wage increase Russians need is economically impossible

At the same time, the agency forecasts oil prices at $52.4 per barrel. Other international organizations also do not expect positive dynamics in oil prices. According to forecasts by representatives of the International Monetary Fund, oil prices will be set at around $50.6 per barrel in 2017, rising to $53.1 in 2018. And experts from the American Energy Information Administration say that the price of oil can reach a level of 51.0 USD.

Even the most qualified specialists do not undertake to give accurate forecasts for a long period of time, since the modern economy is constantly exposed to risks. However, it is impossible to do without forecasting, because it is on the basis of recommendations and strategy that it is possible to ensure state development and minimize the negative consequences of various financial phenomena.

Every year, Russian and international experts analyze the current situation and, based on it, identify possible risks and potential of the economy in the future. These forecasts are also interesting for ordinary citizens, because it affects the issues of government provision of social guarantees and affects the standard of living in general.

Macroeconomic forecasts for 2018

Almost all government forecasts are optimistic and promise a period of stability, since Russia, unlike other resource-based economies, quickly adapts to changes in market conditions.

International agencies are less categorical and believe that although the situation may indeed improve compared to last year, the growth rate will still be very small, since foreign markets are not stable, and there are problems with inflation and economic structure within the country.

Independent experts, who just recently issued sad forecasts regarding the economic situation in Russia, now, on the eve of the presidential elections, are speaking out more optimistically and promising a sharp improvement in all macroeconomic indicators.

In general, despite the optimism of government departments, few of them talk about sharp growth, only that Russia is emerging from a period of recession into a period of stagnation with positive dynamics.

Ministry of Economic Development of Russia

One of the main functions of the Ministry of Economic Development is to analyze the economic situation and draw up a forecast for three years ahead. Based on these data, a budget is developed and approved. The GDP growth indicators for 2017-2019 in the latest forecast were revised downward; among all indicators, only the inflation rate inspires optimism; it is expected that already in the first quarter of 2018 they will drop to 4% per year. GDP growth is expected to be 0.9%, and the entire economy will grow by only 1.2%, although 2.1% was previously forecast.

The reason for the adjustment was the worsening situation with oil prices. It is expected that prices will not rise above $45 per barrel, and therefore the ruble exchange rate against the dollar will be about 71, previously expected to be 64.5.

Central Bank of Russia

The head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiulina, believes that in 2018 economic growth will be from 1.7 to 2.3%. The main factor is an increase in demand within the country, which will lead to an increase in consumption and investment. She believes that several scenarios are possible that have an equal chance of coming true.

1. Optimistic. The oil price will rise to $80 per barrel by the second half of 2018.
2. Conservative. The price per barrel will be around $602 per barrel.

The Central Bank’s traditionally optimistic view of inflation, which should drop to 4% by the end of 2018. Strong economic growth is also promised.

RANEPA and Institute of Economic Policy

Non-governmental economic organizations in Russia overwhelmingly express less optimistic data. For example, economic growth is 0.8%, but by 2019 GDP is only up to 1.5%.

At the same time, experts from RANEPA and the Institute of Economic Policy explain the statements of the Ministry of Economic Development by the fact that the government department simply cannot issue more pessimistic forecasts, otherwise the country’s leadership will conclude that the Ministry is professionally incompetent. However, the slowdown in inflation and the stabilization of oil prices is not yet a reason to calm down.

An overly optimistic approach may slow down the progress of economic reforms in the state. Even if in the event of income growth, the population will not rush to spend their finances, but will prefer to accumulate them, so you should not count on a significant increase in consumption in the near future.

According to experts, in the best case scenario, market stabilization can only be expected by the end of 2019, which is completely different from the government’s statement. More recently, the President said that Russia began to emerge from the crisis back in 2015, and today there is a steady growth in all economic indicators.

RANEPA published a report containing two probable scenarios for the development of the economic situation in the country. The first states that quotes will remain at 40 rubles per unit of volume, GDP growth in 2018 will be no more than 1.4%, and the dollar will be equal to 69-72 rubles. With this development, the country will return to the level of consumption that existed before the crisis, and in 2019 an increase in industrial investment will begin. The second scenario is that the oil price will reach $60 per barrel, GDP will reach 1.9%, and the dollar will cost 57 rubles. This will increase oil revenues and reduce the budget deficit. If the scenario becomes a reality, the standard of living in the country will improve, and the state will be able to fulfill more of its social obligations.

The opinion of experts also differs from the government’s on the issue of inflation; in their opinion, in 2018 it will reach 6%. Even if the situation develops according to the second scenario, the economic growth rate will not be able to reach the level of world leading countries.

According to experts from the Gaidar Institute, the reorientation of production and economic restructuring will most likely lead to the fact that the federal budget in 2018-2019 will be lower than the level of the previous two years. In 2018, revenues from sales of gas and oil on the foreign market will amount to 37.4% of all Russian budget revenue, but in 2019 the figure will drop to 36%.

TsMAKP

Experts from foreign agencies have somewhat improved their forecasts for the development of the Russian economy compared to the previous period, but even the most optimistic of them are far from government statements.

For example, experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting give the most negative, sad picture of the future, saying that some trends in the domestic market, coupled with external risks, threaten to create a new wave of crisis in 2018.

Even under the best-case scenario, when prices reach $55 per barrel of oil, GDP will rise by only 0.5%, then real income of the population will grow by 2.2%. The second, basic option, assumes an oil price of $40 per barrel and the Russian economy leaving the end of the year with a zero result; the growth in incomes of Russians will be only 1.1%.

But even these options can be called optimistic, since over the past year the income level has been steadily declining until it reached 5%.

Higher School of Economics

Experts from the Higher School of Economics make an even more negative forecast for the future. Among the main factors are the lack of investment activity, the almost complete depletion of the Reserve Fund and high, difficult-to-calculate risks.

As a result, according to HSE Director Valery Mironov, Russia will face a continuation of the recession, and GDP in 2018 will grow by no more than 1%.

World Bank

World Bank experts, having conducted a detailed study of all Russian economic indicators, have identified several main directions for overcoming the crisis and increasing growth rates in the near future.

The main argument was the need to develop and implement new approaches to regulating business and eliminating most of the existing restrictions (mainly of an administrative nature). In addition, it is necessary to create a market infrastructure, update fixed assets, and remove restrictions in the innovation sphere.

The problem of insufficient development of workers' qualifications deserves special attention. Basically, most people, receiving higher education, stop at it, refusing the opportunity to improve highly specialized skills, since this does not receive encouragement from the employer.

The crisis, according to experts, can be overcome, among other things, by raising the retirement age. It's no secret that in Russia the number of working citizens is becoming smaller every year than those who are retired. Previously, high oil prices made it possible to turn a blind eye to this problem, but in light of recent trends, it has become simply impossible to ignore it. The pension fund is not filling up quickly enough to cover the entire required amount of payments. One of the reasons is receiving “gray” wages, from which social contributions are not made. According to rough estimates, more than thirty-five million Russian citizens receive it; coping with this problem is quite difficult, so only raising the retirement age can help avoid additional burden on the budget and, as a result, reduce the rate of inflation.

It is estimated that GDP will not change much over the next few years and will grow by no more than 1.7% in 2018. The increase is due to oil prices ($59.2 per barrel).

However, even if the dynamics of oil prices are good, there is no reason to count on a sharp improvement in economic life in Russia. Until the country takes the path of economic diversification, the risks arising from price volatility in the commodity market will continue to have too strong a negative impact on it.

The World Bank believes that these risks can be mitigated by increasing wages and stimulating investment, this will provoke an increase in the population's demand for goods and services and ensure the flow of funds into the Russian economy from the business sector.

Analytical agency Standard & poor’s Global Rating

An almost similar forecast regarding growth in the Russian economy in 2018 is given by specialists from the Standard & Poor’s Global Rating agency. According to their calculations, GDP will grow by 1.4%. And even such a slight change in macroeconomic indicators will improve the atmosphere in the banking sector, but one cannot count on an increase in the consumer demand of the population. To change this trend, a more serious improvement in economic conditions is needed, including an increase in wages by at least 10% per year.

Oil prices in 2018 should be at $52.4 per barrel. Other international agencies do not expect positive dynamics in this matter either. According to their forecasts, the price will be approximately $50.6 per barrel in 2017 and $53 in 2018. At the US Energy Information Administration, experts put the figure at $51 per barrel.

European Commission

Experts from the European Commission, compared to previous years, for 2018 give a more favorable forecast for the development of the Russian economy. In their opinion, for example, at the end of 2018, the country’s GDP growth will be 1.1%, and not 0.6% as before, this will happen due to the stabilization of oil prices and the national currency. The unemployment rate in percentage terms will be 5.6%, and the inflation rate will be 4.7%.

Shocks, sanctions, fluctuations

We gathered the most famous Russian economists to find out their forecasts for 2018 and sum up the results of the outgoing year. Former Minister of Economy Andrey Nechaev, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Ruslan Grinberg, Director of the FBK Institute for Strategic Analysis Igor Nikolaev, Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Institute of Growth Economics named after. Stolypin Yakov Mirkin also spoke about how Russians can protect their income.

The Russian economy has lived through another year, which turned out to be very contradictory. On the one hand, most macroeconomic indicators indicate that the country has begun to emerge from the crisis after the previous two years of failure: GDP, although not much, is still growing, inflation is at a record low, and the ruble exchange rate is stable. On the other hand, real incomes of the population continue to decline, and, as numerous opinion polls show, difficult financial times for the majority of Russians continue.

Do you consider the preliminary results of 2017 unexpected? Do they indicate that the country is emerging from the crisis?

Igor Nikolaev:- The results turned out to be contradictory, but they cannot be called unexpected. It would be logical to assume that if the crisis is over, it means that the causes that caused it have been weakened or eliminated.

But our crisis is structurally aggravated by external factors - falling oil prices and sanctions. It turns out that the crisis is over, but its causes and structural problems remain?

It has become easier because oil prices have risen from last year's 40 to 60 dollars per barrel. But at the same time, our economy has not ceased to be resource-based, the share of small businesses has not grown from a very low level of 20%, and budget distortions have not been eliminated. Therefore, what happened in the past year is not a way out of the crisis, but an adaptation to new conditions. That is, there was a correction, a temporary improvement, but the problems were not solved. And the numbers show this.

Look at the latest data from Rosstat: agriculture - minus 2%, construction - minus 3.1%, industry - at zero. At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development forecasts that by the end of the year, Russian GDP is expected to grow by 2.1%. But this will not happen; based on the results of three quarters, we have 1.6%. This means that the crisis has not gone away, and there is no point in relaxing.

Ruslan Grinberg:- The President of the Russian Federation at a recent press conference said that sustainable growth has begun. I understand that the government must radiate optimism. But other developing countries with which we are comparable - for example, China, India - have annual GDP growth of 6–7%.

It seems that our good oil story is over; everyone is happy that we are getting off the oil needle. But, on the other hand, there are no compensating factors that could direct the economy onto a path of sustainable growth. The prolonged stability is turning into stagnation, and we are now experiencing such a time.

Yakov Mirkin:- Let's still look at the whole picture. In 2016, prices began to rise not only for raw materials, but also for metals, which is beneficial for Russia. In addition, during the crisis, we managed to maintain the volumes of extraction and export of raw materials, despite the fact that in 2013–2014 our Western partners called for reducing dependence on Russian exports. But this dependence did not decrease as quickly as we feared.

In addition, if you look at the same Rosstat data, we have “islands of growth”: the military industry, grain farming, pharmaceuticals. And if you look even more closely, this year we have had a real economic miracle in the production of trams: in 2014 we produced 1-3 trams per month, and now - 20 trams. We also have the same economic miracle in the production of paving slabs.

But at the same time, Russia ranks 100th in the world in terms of life expectancy, and even Malaysia is ahead of us in terms of GDP per capita. We have a “crutch” economy - when the state artificially creates conditions for certain points of growth: greater access to credit, budget financing, tax incentives. That is, instead of normalizing market conditions as a whole, we are creating greenhouses around which there is a desert plain.

From high stands we have been told in recent months about the achievement of economic stability in the country. But how does this stability fit with the continuing decline in real incomes?

Andrey Nechaev:- Macroeconomic indicators, which are so optimistic in official statistics, raise doubts and questions. The main thing that confuses us is the extremely high volatility of the main growth components.

The only thing that is stable is the fall in real incomes of the population. Moreover, according to data over the past 10 months, this decline has accelerated. The population turned out to be the main victims of the crisis. Now the volume of decline in real incomes is such that we can safely talk about a deterioration in living standards. Russians are undergoing a difficult behavioral model adaptation to new realities: people begin to eat worse and reduce consumption.

We got economic growth of low quality, and also extremely unstable. Perhaps, due to the low base effect, there will be a 2% GDP growth at the end of the year, but this growth is not clear in the name of what, because it will not allow solving social problems.

Yakov Mirkin:- The stability that we are told about is worth fearing. If only because it is threatened by the instability of our financial system, which is still small - it is inadequate for the size of the economy.

We are told about the stability of the banking system, but three large private banks turned out to have bad assets, and the state is saving them. We are told that we have record low inflation - 2.5%. But inflation among industrial producers is 8%. The increase in tariffs for transportation is also 8%.

And finally, we are told about the stability of the ruble. Three times we “happily” experienced a time of stable ruble, which each time ended with an explosive devaluation, the entry of speculators and non-resident carry traders into the stock markets: this happened in 1998, 2008 and 2014.

This is the stability of a patient who is saved according to the “heal yourself” principle. But this patient wants to live and even run at fast speeds, so the doctor must use special recipes for him.

It follows from your speeches that all our macroeconomic indicators are unstable and contradictory. Then name one - the most important factor, in your opinion, that would most significantly characterize the outgoing year.

Andrey Nechaev:- Of course, a drop in household incomes. This indicator outweighs everything else. What are all the economic exercises for if people's living standards are falling?

Igor Nikolaev:- I agree: dynamics of real disposable income of the population. This indicator also takes into account inflation - that same, super low one. The question arises: why do real incomes of the population fall with such inflation? If economic growth does not lead to an increase in the income of the population, then screw such economic growth.

Ruslan Grinberg:- It would be strange if I did not agree with my colleagues. Why then do we need an economy, if not to increase incomes and improve people's living standards?

But for us it is truly special. In our country, at the apogee of growth, it was believed that every fifth person lives well on one salary; now there are fewer such “lucky” people. The remaining four-fifths are saved by growing cucumbers and tomatoes on their six hundred square meters. People don't care about economic growth - they need a normal personal income.

- What economic risks threaten us in 2018?

Igor Nikolaev:- After the economic correction this year, next year there will not be a growth trajectory above the global average, as in the task set by the president for 2019–2020. There will be stagnation at best.

There are other risk factors: aggravation of the foreign political situation, strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions (already in February), a possible fall in oil prices. Now Saudi Arabia has an interest in extending the OPEC+ agreement (a memorandum signed by 13 OPEC countries and 11 independent producers, including Russia, on the voluntary seduction of oil production - “MK”), but the participants are already discussing how they will exit him.

Plus, shale producers in the United States have reached a new level and are increasing production. Our economy, which remains resource-based, will naturally react negatively to this.

Hence the forecast: there will be no failure in 2018, but the indicators will be worse than in 2017. In particular, in terms of GDP we’ll talk about zero. However, in terms of real income, there may not be a failure: before the elections, pensions and salaries were indexed, and there will be a pumping of money for social services. In this sense, the greater concern for 2019 is: what will happen after the elections?

Ruslan Grinberg:- One of my Polish friends said about the Russian economy: “Your situation is good, but not hopeless.” I believe in this too.

On the one hand, there are no prerequisites for social cataclysms or turbulence. The position of the country's leadership has been determined: stability must be maintained. This means keeping inflation low, not expanding the budget deficit, and not striving for large construction projects that require significant investments.

But we have lost the production of simple goods; it is no longer possible to compete with Asia in this regard. It is impossible to compete with Germany and the USA in the production of investment goods. Therefore, in order to accelerate economic growth, we have two ways: to use the spatial potential of Russia, which is not yet adequately used (development corridors, high-speed highways and railways) and to develop large-scale housing construction, subsidized by the state.

Yakov Mirkin:- My forecast is friendly. Russia is a piece of the world economy, and we will be supported by the demand from the growing world economy for Russian raw materials. This means that the trade basis of social stability will remain.

On the other hand, world commodity prices are a financial commodity that is highly dependent on what happens in the marriage of the two reserve currencies - the dollar and the euro. And here there is a high probability of sharp fluctuations.

The next risk factor is geopolitical shocks. In particular, the North Korean factor, which invisibly influences the economy due to its unpredictability.

Third: there are several scenarios why the flow of hot money into the Russian economy from abroad will unfold, which will create problems for the ruble, inflation, banks, and investments. This probability accumulates. The main thing is not to create an overconcentration of risks, so that our patient - the economy - does not get blown somewhere: any new disease will kill it.

Andrey Nechaev:- It is important what position the president takes on socio-economic policy. It is clear that we are at a fork in the road because the current model has reached a dead end. Strategic programs are being developed, but it is not yet clear what this will entail. The worst thing is if the programs are crossed like a snake with a hedgehog.

From the point of view of external factors, it is important what decisions on sanctions the United States will make in February. Europe has already said that it is neither improving nor worsening the situation. But Trump, who is laundering accusations of connections with Russia, will not resist anything.

It will be one story if there is an increase in personal sanctions (in this sense, the precedent of the detention of Suleiman Kerimov in France is indicative - this was a signal that the oligarchs heard), another story if there is a blow to our entire financial sector.

Regarding oil: judging by the forecasts of the US Department of Energy, their production will be more than 10 million barrels per day next year, and some experts say that even more - 11–12 million. If so, then the US will become the largest oil producer. Therefore, OPEC will take a different position - it will no longer make sense for them to artificially reduce production. And this could again “drop” the barrel. The banking sector, where large banks are being actively rehabilitated, also raises questions. So there are enough risk factors for next year.

- Advise how, against the backdrop of the risks you spoke about, ordinary people can protect their income...

Igor Nikolaev:- Bad times in the economy are not over yet, and it is not worth taking at face value the authorities’ assurances about the coming stability. Now it’s better to pull yourself together and try to earn extra money: you won’t regret it!

Now is the time to demand from debtors to return the money previously lent to you: it will be more difficult to return them later.

But I don’t recommend buying Bitcoin, no matter how much excitement there is about it now. In order to enter this market, you must at least understand the issue, and for the vast majority of Russians this is still uncharted territory.

Yakov Mirkin:- The Russian economy should be treated as a great adventure. The winner in this adventure is the one who constantly generates something new and loves to change. In a changing environment, you should not count on anyone, such as the state, to feed you, so it is important to maintain the ability to generate income at any age.

A person is a commodity in the labor market, so you need to invest in yourself, in your education, health, and skills. At the same time, you should not take on too high credit risks that will interrupt any future family income.

The same thing applies to currency risks. The ruble has yet to prove that it is a stable currency. In short, I do not recommend speculating on financial markets whose rules you do not know. But if you find yourself in a financial “pyramid” or “bubble”, I sincerely wish you to get out of it on time.

Moscow, August 31 - "Vesti.Ekonomika". The forecast for Russian GDP growth for 2017 was increased in the base scenario from 2% to 2.1%, in 2018-2020. - from 1.5% to 2.1-2.3%, said the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin.

The Ministry of Economic Development has prepared an updated macroeconomic forecast for 2017-2020, assuming the continuation of anti-Russian sanctions until the end of 2020. The new forecast for oil prices was compiled based on the premise of implementing OPEC+ agreements until the end of March 2018.

At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development does not include in the updated macro forecast for 2018-2020. possible strengthening of sanctions against Russia by the United States. “We don’t have a stress scenario. There is a conservative scenario, its difference is a weaker trajectory for oil prices,” Oreshkin clarified.

“The steady economic growth that we talked about continues; it began somewhere in the middle of 2016. This is already visible in the annual GDP growth indicators. As I said, in the second quarter, GDP growth amounted to 2.5%. Indeed, the July “The value looks weaker. This is a slowdown in growth rates to 1.5%, but this is largely due to temporary factors and the impact of the strong ruble exchange rate that we had at the beginning of 2017,” Oreshkin said.

By temporary factors, the Ministry of Economic Development means, in particular, agricultural indicators, which are associated with cold weather. Thus, the July indicators for agriculture are approximately 3% lower than the July indicators of last year. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Economic Development expects that this year’s harvest will be no worse than last year. “This means that in August-September we will see much more positive dynamics in agricultural output, and this factor will begin to play in the other direction in these months,” Oreshkin emphasized.

The budget deficit in 2017 is expected to be below 2% of GDP, and by 2020 the figure should decrease to 0.8% of GDP. “This is due to the adoption of a new budget rule. This, in principle, well describes the dynamics of what will happen to the budget deficit in the coming period,” the minister explained.

Meanwhile, the forecast for the average annual price of Urals oil for 2017 was increased from $45.6 to $49 per barrel, for 2018 - lowered to $43.8, for 2019 - to $41.6, for 2020 - to $42, 4 per barrel. “We expect more or less stable oil prices until the end of the first quarter of 2018 and a decline to $41-42 per barrel by mid-2018. The concluded OPEC deal with Russia and other countries made it possible to compensate for the active growth in production in countries such as Nigeria, Libya and the United States, and in general allowed the market to remain balanced, and the level of inventories to decrease somewhat,” Oreshkin noted.

The ruble exchange rate forecast for 2017 was increased to 63 rubles. for $1 from the previous 68 rubles, for 2018 - reduced to 66.1 rubles, for 2019 - to 67.6 rubles, for 2020 - to 68.9 rubles. from 73.8 rub. in the April version of the forecast.

In the new forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development expects inflation in 2017 to be 3.7% versus the previous 3.8% in 2018-2020. - at the level of 4%. “Despite the fact that the forecast for the exchange rate, as I said, is generally consistent with what we had in April, we expect even lower inflation - 3.5-3.7%,” Oreshkin said.

“We believe that this will also open up opportunities for the Central Bank to lower rates. And thanks to the easing of the Central Bank’s monetary policy, it will be possible to return inflation closer to the target value of 4% at the end of 2018.” - the minister explained.

The forecast for industrial production growth for 2017 was kept at 2%, for 2018-2020. - increased to 2.5% annually. The retail trade growth forecast for 2017 was lowered to 1.2% from the previous 1.9% for 2018-2020. - increased to 2.9-2.7-2.5%, respectively.

The forecast for growth of investment in fixed assets for 2017 was increased to 4.1%, in 2018-2020. - up to 4.7-5.7% per year. In addition, the Ministry of Economic Development slightly increased the forecast for the growth of real incomes of the population this year - to 1.2%, in 2018 - to 2.1%.

The current account will decline from $27 billion in 2017 to $7 billion in 2018 and $1.5 billion in 2019-2020.

The forecast for capital outflow from Russia for 2017 has been increased to $18 billion from $8-10 billion. “We have some revision towards increasing outflow: for 2017 we expect about $18 billion. For 2018 - some improvement: on the contrary , we expect an outflow of $7 billion,” Oreshkin noted.

"We expect continued tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. We believe that the market is underestimating the tightening that will occur. The latest data on the situation on the US labor market will push for more drastic actions by the Federal Reserve than the market expects. In many ways, we We believe that this factor will be one of the reasons that will push us to reassess the level of risk in global markets.

We expected the situation on global markets to worsen in April. Until it happens, we remain positive on global markets. We see very high risk appetite, which generally supports strong values ​​in all currencies and strong values ​​in equity markets. But we believe that this situation carries quite serious risks and we consider it quite likely that a correction in global markets will occur in the coming quarters,” Oreshkin emphasized.

The Ministry of Economic Development included in the basic macro forecast scenario the preservation of current tax rates. “The basic forecast is based on the current tax system. Forks in the target scenario are possible, they are still being discussed. There is no news yet. In general, drastic changes should not be expected here either,” the minister noted.

Proposals for tariff indexation in the upcoming three-year period have not changed in the updated macro forecast. “Those tariffs that were proposed in the forecast in April remain unchanged. In general, we maintain a fully presented tariff setting policy at the level of “inflation” - “inflation minus,” the minister emphasized.

The updated macro forecast proposed by the Ministry of Economic Development was supported at a meeting held on Wednesday with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Oreshkin said. “It will be considered by the government at the appropriate time, we have submitted it to the government,” the minister explained. Answering the question whether the forecast had been agreed upon with the Ministry of Finance, Oreshkin said that the forecast “was discussed yesterday at a meeting with Dmitry Anatolyevich and was supported.”



The next year promises to be difficult for Russia. Considering the general inaction of the authorities against the backdrop of a worsening recession in the national economy and the refusal of the country's top leadership to take decisive action, we can expect a continued deterioration in the financial and economic condition of the state. In addition, the coming year will have to determine the vector of subsequent development for the coming years. The starting point will be the presidential elections.

Already at the beginning of 2017, experts made preliminary forecasts for the development of the Russian economy in 2018. Thus, quite diverse information was provided by specialists from financial analytical, consulting, investment and insurance companies. Despite significant differences in the options presented by analysts, they have something in common - the constant linking of the economic state to the vector of foreign and domestic policy. Also, the economic forecast of foreign experts from rating agencies and financial companies for Russia for the coming year 2018 is “tailored” to probable political events, military actions and the resolution of territorial disputes.

Unjustified optimism is unnecessary

For financiers who closely monitor the state of the national economies of European countries and the United States, the position of the current government looks incomprehensible and quite risky. It officially announces the end of the financial crisis and the most difficult time for households and businesses. All this is happening against the background of rather modest indicators of the Russian economy at the end of 2016 and at the beginning of 2017. For example, in the first quarter of this year, the country's GDP is characterized by a decline. But this year it was only 1.2%, not 3.7% in the same quarter last year. At the same time, economists from the Profile magazine remind readers that a slowdown in recession is not equivalent to the beginning of growth. At the same time, the recession in the economy continues, which was reflected in the April statistics. In particular, Vnesheconombank analysts say that the April results are negative.

Experts also note generally unsatisfactory dynamics in terms of GDP over the past 4 years (Fig. 1).

Russia's annual GDP growth rate

The relative multidirectional movement of indicators characterizing the country’s economy creates a false impression that the situation is leveling out and the crisis is being overcome. However, once you take a closer look at the latest data, this is the picture that emerges. On the one hand, there is a growth in the raw materials export sector, which is estimated at an average of one and a half percent. The defense industry is also growing, sometimes by 15%, sometimes by 13% per year. And even agriculture, forgotten by everyone, is steadily growing at 3% per year.

And with all this, what can we expect from a country in which there has been a steady decline in household incomes for 16 months in a row? This quite naturally leads to the decline of retail trade, the service sector, the construction market, the automotive industry, tourism and so on. The steady decline in investment in the economy also does not seem to be a positive factor allowing us to talk about economic recovery. Experts' forecast regarding the possibility of leveling out the investment market also remains disappointing against the backdrop of continued strained relations with the West and Europe's aggressive sanctions policy.

Forecast of basic indicators for the Russian Economy according to http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast

Although analysts’ opinions differ regarding when the rise in Russia will begin, as reported by official sources, but the physical presence, which is impossible to find in financial terms, we can count on the fact that in 2018 it will become clear at least that what course the state will take. The normal state of the economy, according to all existing theories, is growth and expansion. In general, the reversal from a fall of 0.8% to an increase of 0.5% is small; a developed economy can overcome it within a period equal to a financial year.

Forecasts for Russia depend not so much on the capabilities of its production and service sectors, but on export prices for resources. In particular, if the price of oil rises to $60 this year alone, then our country has very real prospects of starting a new trend, turning the situation around and directing the economic development towards growth. However, every single expert predicts that even if prices rise to at least $57 per barrel, this trend will not be long-term and will not allow our economy to recover. There are already examples of such market behavior and their consequences were not positive for Russia (Fig. 2).

Don't try to convert your savings into foreign currency in 2018. The presence of problems in the country's economy allows us to talk about the unpredictable volatility of currency pairs and the financial instruments market as a whole. It is better to invest in so-called “long-term” money with a payback of 2-3 years.

There is no certainty, however, that the responsible persons in the Ministry and the Government do not expect such “gifts” from the market and do not plan to formulate the budget for 2018 based on such unjustifiably positive calculations.

Rice. 2. Price dynamics are not oil

Possible development paths

Additional emission of money: last hope or chance for “recovery”

Due to the lack of prospects for positive changes in the Russian economy, a debate is flaring up among specialists with renewed vigor about the possibility of using additional emission of money supply as a support instrument. While analysts are only pondering how high the risks of launching a printing press are and awaiting the consequences, the country's leadership has long ago decided that printing money is possible. What is it used for?

• military spending;
• fulfillment of obligations to employees in the public sector of the economy;
• compliance with obligations in the social policy of the state;
• meeting the need for financing targeted programs.

An experiment of this kind has already been carried out, in particular, the largest fact of launching the money supply into the economy was the purchase of foreign currency by the Central Bank from the Ministry of Finance. At the same time, it is planned that in a fairly short period of the next year the Central Bank can thus introduce more than one and a half trillion rubles into the economy, including through the bank rescue program. What awaits Russia in 2018, if an additional mass of money has already been printed in the amount of 358 billion rubles. This money will subsequently be issued to all depositors whose banks the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has revoked their license to operate.

With such a financing policy, one can expect that the Central Bank will simply determine the permissible emission volume for 2018 for Russia. However, such an approach will not only slow down current development, but will also become a problem for the new (if there is a new) leadership of the country, which will begin to fulfill its duties in the first half of 2018.

Against the optimistic economic forecast for Russia for 2018, there is still one more significant limiting factor - the refusal of the current government to look into the future. No meaningful decisions regarding the development of the system puts the entire future of the state at great risk.

The economic situation tends to fix existing areas that want and support the system in working order, but do not give it the opportunity to get ahead.

Thus, most forecasters expect that the scenario for the country’s economic development in 2018 will be more negative than positive, regardless of what the official positions of the Ministry of Finance and the head of the Government are.